The Indianapolis Colts travel to Buffalo to take on the AFC East Champion Bills to kick off the 2021 NFL Wild Card weekend. Buffalo enters the playoffs winners of six straight and sit as a close to a touchdown betting favorite over the Colts with a total set at 52.
Despite being a trendy pick to dethrone the reigning Super Bowl Champion Chiefs, the Bills should be on upset alert come Sunday against the Colts’ bend don’t break defense.
Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, but what about the defense?
It may be too late for Josh Allen to make a serious run at the 2020 MVP, but he is sure playing like one this season. Allen completed more than 69% of his passes, while throwing for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The former first-round pick carried the Bills to their first division title since 1995.
Allen sets the tone on first down, posting a 62% success rate on first down throws. By playing ahead of the sticks, it helps Buffalo’s offense take shots down field and put pressure on the defense.
The strong first down offense also helps the Bills maintain possession, converting a league high 50% of third downs. Allen and the Bills wear down defenses over the course of 60 minutes.
It’s the Bills’ defense that could let them down in the playoffs. Buffalo’s defense has actually allowed the most scoring drives this season; 15% of their opponent’s drives end in a score yet they are above the league average in points allowed per drive.
The Bills do a great job of limiting opponents to field goals when they are in scoring position, but is there some regression coming in that department?
Buffalo hero returns home
You’ll hear it all week, but Colts head coach Frank Reich was the quarterback of the Bills team that led a 35-3 comeback over the Houston Oilers in the 1993 Playoffs. Now, Reich is here to break Buffalo’s hearts with an upset win.
While the Colts lack much glamour, they make up for with a solid foundation. At linebacker, Darius Leonard anchors a defense that is fourth in quarterback hurry percentage, but 31st in the NFL in blitz percentage. Leonard and starting defensive lineman DeForest Buckner are able to get pressure on the quarterback without the Colts’ defense needing to send extra men on blitzes.
Indy is going to need to stay at home and still maintain pressure on Allen, who is more than capable of making plays with his legs, rushing for 421 yards on 102 attempts this season.
Indianapolis is going to likely need some turnover help in this one, and Buffalo is tied for 10th in the league in turnover percentage with more than 12% of drives ending in turnovers.
The story of this game though is going to be what Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has left in the tank. He has shown his age at times this season, but Reich has built a sound offense around him to mask some of Rivers’ weaknesses.
For starters, Indy has a nice stable of running backs to utilize not only in the rushing game, but also pass catchers. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins get some looks on passing downs, combining for 90 targets on the season, but second round pick Jonathan Taylor is the gem of the offense. Rushing for 1,169 yards as a rookie, Taylor exploded for a franchise record 253 yards last Sunday versus the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In a game where the Colts are going to need to maintain the ball, expect them to attack Buffalo’s biggest weakness: its rush defense. Buffalo is allowing opposing running backs a 56% success rate, according to SharpFootballStats, the third worst mark in the league. Taylor and the ground game will play a prominent role in this one.
Old Man River(s) as a Playoff Underdog
Rivers is reportedly mulling retirement and joined the Colts on a one-year deal with Super Bowl intentions. While his play may have declined, this is a familiar spot for the 39-year-old Rivers. He has played in 11 playoff games in his career and has been an underdog eight times. The North Carolina State product is 6-2 against the spread in this spot, including four outright victories.
This line being pushed to a touchdown is way too high for my liking. I project this one closer to Bills -4.5 and think people are overlooking a Colts team that may not be flashy, but ultimately compiled an 11-5 record and are a serious threat to pull the outright upset on Saturday.
Historically, this has been a profitable time to buy a team like the Colts, one that put together a strong regular season and now enters the postseason catching a touchdown. Road playoff teams with 11 wins or more in the regular season that are +6.5 or higher are 10-5 ATS, including five outright wins, dating back to 2004.
The Colts are live underdogs in this spot and are worth a play on the moneyline, which was around +240 as of Tuesday.
