Four exciting matchups await the NFL universe this weekend as the playoffs get underway. The consensus point spread for each game indicates that we could be looking at four close contests, each separated by just one score or less.
But here at RADIO.COM Sports, we have slightly different spreads made accessible to us and our readers by our quantitative sports consultant, Arian Modarres. Below you’ll find a betting guide to each game along with significant stats that may indicate why we think the way we do about each matchup, whether in concordance with or in opposition to the Vegas odds.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Saturday, January 4 | 4:35 pm ET
RADIO.COM Sports Spread: HOU -2.5
RADIO.COM Sports Total: 43
Our spread and total is nearly identical to what the Vegas consensus has for the first matchup of the weekend slate. Houston’s offense has carried the weight for the majority of the season, as it is in the top ten for both successful pass plays and successful run plays, defined by average yards gained based on the down. Nearly 40% of their passing offense comes on short passes, utilizing talent like DeAndre Hopkins, Duke Johnson and others to chip away at opponents. However, they fall short on the defensive side, allowing conversions on third down at a rate challenged by few other teams and missing tackles that lead to massive yardage after the catch (YAC).
The Bills, on the other hand, have struggled on offense with inconsistency issues at the hands of Josh Allen. They are hovering around the bottom third of the league in both points and red zone appearances above expected given numerous factors (field position, weather, opponent, etc.), and instead relied on their defense to lead them into the postseason. They are among the top teams in the league at stopping the pass attack and stopping teams from getting to the red zone, and in turn, are second only to the Patriots in fewest points allowed.
Key Stat: Buffalo’s Defensive Prowess
Key
YAC: Yards after catch allowed compared to the expected amount
Pass Tendency: How much the opponent leans on the pass (lower = more run-heavy)
EarlyDSuccess: Opponent’s success at gaining first downs on first or second down
ExThirdDSuccess: Opponent’s expected third down conversion based on yards to go
ThirdDAboveEx: Opponent’s third down conversion rate compared to the expected rate
Buffalo’s defense has been extremely successful. Given the fact that teams tend to lean more on the pass than the run when facing the Bills (as shown on the second bar in the above graph), and that they stop it at such an impressive rate, this trend is likely to continue against a pass-happy Texans offense. And while the Bills’ lackluster offense may not be enough to get a road win against the 10-6 Texans, one thing looks to be a sure thing: this will be a low-scoring, grind-it-out type of contest.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Saturday, January 4 | 8:15 pm ET
RADIO.COM Sports Spread: NE -6.5
RADIO.COM Sports Total: 43.5
While our total aligns perfectly with the Vegas consensus, our spread has New England taking this game by a slightly larger margin than what others see. The spread opened at -5.5, and is currently at a consensus of -5. Interestingly, our spread points in the other direction, and the data explains why.
The Patriots offense can be summed up as a middle-of-the-pack group, hovering around the league average in key stats such as pass success and run success, defined by average yards gained based on the down. An overwhelming percentage of their plays are short passes, and the Patriots have utilized this strategy for years, crafting a pass-catching running back position to perfection and finding tight ends and slot receivers for big chunks of yardage. But what is especially scary about this team is their defense. No one in football is better at preventing opponents from converting third down opportunities, and the rate isn’t particularly close. This will come in handy against the Titans (see below graph).
The Titans are among the teams that run the ball most in the NFL, thanks to a monstrous rushing attack headed by Derrick Henry. The bulk of their rushing attack comes up the middle (around 30%), but they distribute their rushes evenly around the field, attacking both sides of the line and finding greater success than expected in every zone but one (off tackle on the left side). Their defense is fairly stingy as well, limiting opponents’ YAC and run game at a rate that puts them in the top quarter of the league. They do have a weakness, though, in that they allow “successful” pass plays at a high rate, especially struggling to contain checkdown options. With James White and company surrounding Tom Brady, these short passes may become problematic for the Titans.
Key Stat: Patriots’ Situational Defense
Key
YAC: Yards after catch allowed compared to the expected amount
Pass Tendency: How much the opponent leans on the pass (lower = more run-heavy)
EarlyDSuccess: Opponent’s success at gaining first downs on first or second down
ExThirdDSuccess: Opponent’s expected third down conversion based on yards to go
ThirdDAboveEx: Opponent’s third down conversion rate compared to the expected rate
What the Patriots do best on defense is precisely the situation that the Titans tend to struggle with. Though they’re in the top sector of the league in converting on first and second downs, they tend to find themselves in tough third-and-long situations when they’re stopped early. As shown on the graph, the Patriots are among the best in the league at preventing early down success. By the time it’s third down? Forget about it. Teams facing the Patriots are in the lowest percentile in their third down conversion rates.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 5 | 1:05 pm ET
RADIO.COM Sports Spread: NO -4.5
RADIO.COM Sports Total: 48
Unfortunately, there’s no data model to accurately predict the occurrence of another Minneapolis Miracle. However, the data does tell us that there’s a pretty sizable discrepancy between our point spread and what Vegas currently offers. While the Saints are a consensus 7.5-point favorite (it opened at -8), our findings suggest that it may be a closer game. The point total, meanwhile, is exactly the same.
The Saints are an offensive powerhouse. In the 85th percentile in points scored above expected and near the very top in both pass and run success, this is a really hard team to stop. Michael Thomas is undeniably the most important part of that. By far the most targeted player in the league with 186 (Julio Jones is the runner-up with 157), he not only hauled in catch after catch but also found over 20% more success with Brees/Bridgewater when they looked in his direction than would be expected given numerous factors.
* SuccessAboveEx: Pass success rate when targeting receiver above expected
Their defense, on paper, is nearly as glamorous as the offense. They’re in the top tier of the NFL at limiting successful offensive plays and allow much fewer points and red zone appearances than what would be expected.
The Vikings should be relieved that Dalvin Cook is back at full strength, as they leaned on their rushing attack more than nearly the entire NFL. They’re especially effective when running off the right side of their line, producing 15% more success than expected off the right end. This, coincidentally, happens to be the zone that New Orleans has had the most trouble stopping, granting 16% more success than expected. Simply put: Dalvin Cook should be running the ball on the right side if Kevin Stefanski wants to lead an effective attack. The defense is strong in some areas, such as preventing YAC, but vulnerable in others, as they give opponents more third-and-short opportunities than nearly every other team. Unfortunately, Michael Thomas does not rely on YAC like some other receivers do.
Key Stat: Third Down Success
Key
Pass Tendency: How much the team leans on the pass (lower = more run-heavy)
YAC: Yards after catch above expected amount
FourthDAggressiveness: Coach tendency to go for it on fourth down compared to expected rate
EarlyDSuccess: Ability to gain a first down on first or second down
ExThirdDSuccess: Expected third down conversion based on yards to go
ThirdDAboveEx: Third down conversion rate above expected
Both teams, on offense and defense, are similar in third down situations, despite their vastly different approaches to a run-pass split. There will likely be several third-and-short opportunities available to both sides as they chip away at the yardage on first and second down. New Orleans has the slight edge at preventing conversions given these situations. One clutch third down stop on either side of the ball may seal the deal in a game that could become an instant classic given the way it ended in their postseason meeting.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 5 | 4:40 pm ET
RADIO.COM Sports Spread: PHI -1
RADIO.COM Sports Total: 45
The total is similar to the Vegas consensus, but the same can’t be said for the spread at all. Though the opening spread was PHI -1, Vegas now has them as home underdogs as the line has moved all the way in favor of the Seahawks at 1.5 point favorites. Our data indicates that the initial spread was, in fact, the correct way to view this game.
It’s no secret that the Eagles offense has been up and down all year, but it may be better to say that they’re up and down every single drive. That’s because they’re in the bottom quarter of the league in early down success but are near the top in third down conversions above what’s expected. This shows that, above all else, they have trust in quarterback Carson Wentz to make plays even while his entire offense is plagued with injuries. And they trust him beyond third down, as well, as their fourth down aggressiveness is also near the very top of the league. Opponents pass against the Eagles more than they will against most other opponents, and that’s mainly due to their stalwart run defense, which finds itself among the best teams.
Few teams find more success in their passing game than does Seattle, led by MVP-caliber signal-caller Russell Wilson. And while their rushing attack was also top-notch, both Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny are done for the year, making that aspect of the Seahawks’ offense more questionable (especially when facing the Eagles). The defense is suspect, as Seattle’s unit cedes a lot of conversions on first or second down, allowing opponents to rack up yardage and find the red zone in the upper percentiles of the NFL.
Key Stat: Running It Up The Gut
Key
Direction: Broken up into the seven directions a run can go behind the offensive line
Through the three-headed monster of Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Jordan Howard, the Eagles feature a versatile backfield that pounds the rock with success in multiple directions. However, Philadelphia runs the ball with the most frequency right up the middle, and find higher success levels than expected when running inside. As a whole, teams run up the middle more than anywhere else against Seattle, and find more success than expected there as well. Though the quarterback play will be the focus in this one, running behind the all-pro center Jason Kelce could benefit the Eagles in their attempt to extend this unlikely playoff run.
Follow Arian Modarres on Twitter: @_TheNumbersGuy.
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