Remember defense? We didn’t see much of it during the first three weeks of the NFL season and, if you believe what the sharps in Vegas are saying, it looks like Week 4 will be more of the same. In fact, per ESPN’s Field Yates, the average over/under for games this week is 49.8, the highest in NFL history. Week 4 offers plenty of matchups with shootout potential including Browns/Cowboys (56.5 game total), Falcons/Packers (56.5), Saints/Lions (54.5) and Seahawks/Dolphins (54.5).
Teams have been scoring at a blistering pace this year with no end in sight. Through three weeks, NFL teams have combined for a record 2,446 total points with 281 touchdowns (273 were offensive with the other eight coming on defense/special teams) scored during that span.
Offense has reigned supreme in the early going with teams averaging a hair under 25 points per game. According to ESPN’s Kevin Seifert, that’s a 16-percent increase from the first three weeks of 2019. It used to be a momentous accomplishment when an offense put 40 points on the board. Now it’s become a weekly occurrence. The Falcons have averaged an even 30 points per game this season. They’re 0-3.
The league’s recent scoring frenzy is no coincidence. Seifert notes that offensive holding is down 59 percent from last year at this juncture while defensive pass interference has risen 22 percent. The flag-happy refs of yesteryear have turned over a new leaf, calling just 13.63 penalties per game, the lowest in the league since 2001. And before you accuse the zebras of phoning it in, remember who signs their checks.
“Officials are good soldiers,” said ESPN officiating analyst John Parry. “They hear the message and they perform based on what they've been instructed to call. At this level, they are that good. Whatever the marching orders are, that's how they will officiate."
Defenders probably aren’t loving the league’s new Laissez-faire officiating philosophy, particularly on the offensive holding front, but fans might feel differently. What would you rather watch—a high scoring epic (think of all the fantasy points!) with minimal play stoppages or a flag-infested punt-a-thon that takes four hours?
Get ready for points galore this weekend.
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