Gas prices down 30% from last June. Could they rise again this summer?

Gas prices at the pump.
Gas prices at the pump. Photo credit Getty Images
By , Audacy

Even though filling up at the gas station isn’t cheap, gas prices are almost a dollar less than last year this time and well below the peak of $5 seen last June.

According to AAA’s gas tracking tool, the national average for a gallon of gas is $3.53, down 21% from last year’s $4.47 a gallon and down 29% from June’s record benchmark of $5.02 a gallon.

AAA has predicted that consumers should expect stability when it comes to gas prices in the near future, even though current conditions would suggest otherwise.

“Increasing demand for gasoline would usually drive pump prices higher, but the cost for oil has remained low lately, so drivers should benefit from stable pump prices as Memorial Day draws near,” Andrew Gross, a AAA spokesperson, said.

The factors at play in current gas prices would suggest that a gallon of gas should cost more, but GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, shared with CNN that several things are keeping costs down.

One main factor in the reduced prices at the pump is the continued fear of recession partly caused by the record-high inflation rocking the country, De Haan shared. Another factor is the current debt ceiling talks, which CNN says are also contributing to lower oil prices.

While the economy’s stability continues to play a role in prices, the Energy Information Administration has shared that the U.S. is set to break a record in oil output this year. The increased production has helped offset the decision of OPEC to slash its own production.

While prices are still down, De Haan says that the circumstances resulting in cheaper fuel aren’t giving consumers peace of mind.

“We’ve seen a lot of improvement,” De Haan told CNN. “The American consumer is slightly smiling at the lower price of gasoline, but I don’t think it’s a full-blown smile yet because the overall economic feeling is careful.”

The lower gas prices come as the summer travel season is expected to pick up soon, with projections from the Federal Highway Administration saying that Americans are driving more so far this year than any other year on record, except for 2019.

The data comes before summer travel has kicked off, with drivers logging a total of 271 billion miles in March, bumping the year-to-date number to 752 billion, only 1 billion miles shy of 2019’s total throughout the same time.

Those worrying about the possibility of prices rising this summer can take a breath, according to De Haan, who shared that it’s becoming increasingly more likely that the national average doesn’t hit $4 a gallon this summer.

“I do expect summer gas prices will be rather tame,” the gas expert said.

However, De Haan did warn that his prediction comes with two caveats, as he says a hurricane knocking out major refineries could result in a price hike as well as an economic rebound driving up energy demand.

With oil inventories remaining relatively low, De Haan shared that we could find ourselves in a “danger zone” rather quickly if things turn.

“If we return to economic prosperity, we’re going to return to the same gas price explosion as last year,” De Haan said.

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Featured Image Photo Credit: Getty Images