14 years after Jimmy Rollins won the National League MVP despite not making the All-Star team, Bryce Harper is attempting to do the same thing.
And with each passing day, the chances of the Philadelphia Phillies right fielder to win the award seemingly improve.
On the final day of August, a depleted Phillies team (67-64) still finds themselves within striking distance in both the National League East and NL Wild Card races, in large part because Harper has turned in his best month since joining the team in 2019. Across 93 at-bats in August, Harper is slashing .323/.444/.774 with 10 home runs, 23 RBIs, 21 walks and a 1.219 OPS.
Harper homered in a 7-4 win against the Washington Nationals Monday, his 100th career home run at Nationals Park, which he called home for parts of seven seasons. A 2-5 performance allowed Harper to reach a 5.1 fWAR (FanGraphs' version of WAR) in 2021, already his highest single-season mark outside of his MVP season in 2015, when he posted a staggering 9.3 fWAR.
Perhaps more importantly, a 5.1 fWAR pulled Harper into a tie with his former teammate Trea Turner and San Diego Padres superstar Fernando Tatis for the top mark among all National League position players.
As we wrote last week, Turner is attempting to become the first player traded during the season -- he was dealt from the Nationals to the Los Angeles Dodgers in late-July -- to win a league MVP. Considering he's slashing .322/.368/.514 with 20 home runs, 56 RBIs and 26 stolen bases, Turner seemingly has an excellent case. But there will unquestionably be voters who hold him being traded against him, even though he's played all of 2021 in the National League. Others will say that Turner can't be the most valuable if the team he's joined are the defending World Series Champions. Neither of those arguments hold much weight from here, but they will to a non-insignificant number of people.
Still, Harper's biggest challenger for the award appears to be Tatis, who does have 36 home runs, 81 RBIs and 24 stolen bases, as opposed to 26 home runs, 61 RBIs and 12 stolen bases from Harper. However, Harper is hitting .302, as opposed to .282 from Tatis. Harper has also walked 73 times in 2021, a major reason why his on-base percentage (.417) is 53 points higher than that of Tatis (.364). Harper's 1.008 OPS tops not only Tatis (1.007), but every player in baseball as he'll enter play on Tuesday as the Major League leader in what's become one of the most important statistics to monitor in MVP races.
While it's fair to wonder how many awards voters seriously consider defense, there's nothing to set them apart there, as both have been underwhelming in the field in 2021. Harper does have five outfield assists, but also -6 defensive runs saved and -5 outs above average. Tatis has really never graded out well as a shortstop, a trend that continued in 696 2/3 innings at the position in 2021, with the 22-year-old posting -7 defensive runs saved and -1 outs above average. Tatis is playing in the outfielder for the remainder of this season as the Padres attempt to manage his left shoulder injury.
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What may be the deciding factor for some between Harper and Tatis is whether either is able to lead their team to the postseason. But while both teams remain in playoff contention, there does seem to be a real possibility that both the Phillies and Padres miss the playoffs.
The Phillies are 3 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East and three games back of the Cincinnati Reds for the second National League Wild Card spot. As they attempt to return to the postseason for the first time since 2011, the Phillies expect to be without Rhys Hoskins and Zach Eflin for the remainder of the season.
The Padres have fallen out of the National League West race that now appears to be between just the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. At 70-62, Tatis and the Padres are just a half game back of the Reds for the second Wild Card spot, but they've been decimated by pitching injuries and are just 21-29 since the start of July.
Perhaps if both the Phillies and Padres miss the postseason, it will open up the door for Turner to make a serious run at the NL MVP. What's more likely, though, is that whoever of Harper and Tatis has a better September will win the NL MVP, regardless of how their team finishes in the standings.
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