My cousin was in town two weeks ago from Wisconsin for a quick Spring Break getaway.
We make our way through the traditional Midwestern talking points, “How are your folks? How much snow did you get? Did you see Miller made a vaccine shirt with the left arm cut off?”
We get to how work is going and the Browns. He asks how work is going with the draft coming to town. I say, “It’s odd. It has been so long since the Browns have picked in the bottom half of the draft, people don’t totally know how to handle waiting for 25 picks to be made before they pick someone.”
He responds, “Yep, that’s the benefit of being good. You don’t have to care about the draft. You can just wake up the next morning and say “The Packers took a cornerback? Cool, we need one of them.””
Draft day has been a holiday in Cleveland for so long, the NFL rewarded the city by holding it here. Hell, they made a movie about draft day in Cleveland! Now, after years of seeing this day as hopeful salvation, we can treat it like the giant party the NFL always made it out to be.
It feels symbolic to have the NFL Draft here in 2021, a year after the first winning season for the Browns since the IPhone. It’s the last celebration of draft day and a welcome party to being a good football team.
This is the benefit of being good. There is no need to find the savior of the franchise. You are just supplementing what is already here.
While I can not tell you who the Browns should pick at 26, because I would just be quoting Dane Brugler, the PFF guys and Daniel Jeremiah, I think we can piece together some possible places they can go thanks to a leaked Power Point slide from a few years ago.
It’s funny seeing this now and seeing how the roster fits these guardrails.
Everything they have done in the last two off-seasons and draft fits this blueprint. There are two parts to focus on because they play off each other.
One is the Key Positions table and the other is the Draft table.
The Key Positions are quarterback, edge rusher, cornerback and offensive tackle.
Notice something is missing? There is no linebacker under Key Positions. The Browns have shown they do not value the position at the same level the fan base does.
They see linebacker as a coverage position and a second level run stopper. We know this team is going to employ a 4-2-5 as a base defense because NFL offenses were in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE and 3 WR) 60 percent of the time last season, according to Warren Sharp. Add in Joe Woods saying they want to get Ronnie Harrison, Grant Delpit and John Johnson on the field at the same time with Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams and Troy Hill, which puts them playing a 4-1-6 every so often. The Browns are minimizing the linebacker position more and more by the minute. Run stuffing/ coverage linebackers can be found later in the draft.
While we are here, let’s just get this out of the way, they are not taking a quarterback at 26, unless something insane happens. They will draft a quarterback though. It may be in the third round, it may be in the seventh, but they will take one.
To paraphrase former Packers GM Ron Wolf, you take a quarterback every year to cultivate talent. If your quarterback goes down, you are covered at a premier position. If he is healthy, you can always develop quarterbacks to push your established quarterback or trade them to other desperate teams for players of need or more draft picks.
Take the above two paragraphs and replace the word “quarterback” with “offensive tackle” and reread. I will watch this as I wait.
This is still my favorite Prince cover. You can have your Sinéad O’Connor or your Foo Fighters, I will take Warren Zevon making Raspberry Beret sound like the prequel to Lawyers, Guns and Money.
So this leaves us with edge rusher and corner in the premier positions the Browns could take in the first round. Now, let’s bring in the Draft Table.
Don’t draft a red over a blue
I think this is more of a reference to stocks than poker. A blue-chip stock is a stock that comes from a well-known, established company. Blue-chip stocks have a strong history of performance and often pay dividends, according to Nerd Wallet. If we use the 2020 draft as a reference point, the Browns took two players from LSU, one from Alabama and one from Missouri in the first round. So the parent company of the stocks you are buying have produced previously. A red chip stock does not have the same track record of success as a blue chip stock. They can be successful, but the history of success is not as long (There is a whole bunch in here about China and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as well. You can read this if you want, but I am not smart enough to comprehend it all.).
I take all of this to mean, the Browns prefer drafting guys from places which have produced high end NFL talent before. This makes me think Zaven Collins from Tulsa is an example of a guy who is off their board, because he went to a red chip school. Again, this is just my interpretation and I have been wrong before. I want to be wrong because Zaven Collins feels like this year Patrick Queen, in that he will fall in the draft, a good smart team will take him, he will terrorize the NFL for 12 years and fans of 11 teams will go through old drafts and think, “Why in the hell did we not draft him?” The moral of the story is do not go through old drafts. No one wins when you start playing that game. If you feel the urge to play the old draft game, get a fresh beer and buy some Apple stock. The beer is to calm the anger of now and the Apple stock is to make you feel better later.
Be Mindful of Position Scarcity
There are two interpretations of this guardrail.
The most important positions in football are quarterbacks, pass rushers and players in the secondary. If you can cover multiple receivers and get to the quarterback, you will succeed in this league. This interpretation screams best available edge rusher or cornerback at 26, because talent at a premier position is scarce.
The other interpretation is if a position in need is not deep with talent, make sure you get one of the top guys. The only position of need on this roster is defensive tackle. If you believe this interpretation of the guardrail, than this scream Christian Barmore is their guy at 26. He come from a blue chip program at Alabama and this defensive tackle class has been called dreadful by many scouts and analysts with the top being this:
Well that does not preach hope, but it does preach scarcity. If Barmore is the best of a crummy class, the Browns may want the best, knowing the drop off from one to two is so drastic.
Again, you do not want me evaluating draft prospects because all I will tell you is what Dane Brugler, Daniel Jeremiah and the PFF guys have already said. I am not sitting here grinding tape when Mortal Kombat was released this weekend! (Quick movie review, if you are walking into this movie wanting to see fighting, blood and people shoot elements from their hands, this is the movie for you. If you are looking for a plot and brilliant dialog, go watch an Aaron Sokin movie. A lot like this column, I would not call it good, but there are worse ways to waste your time. If you played any of the games, you will enjoy it.)
The last two guardrails I am putting together because they both involve the same concept, trading back to gain future assets.
Accumulate as many picks as possible, especially in the first two rounds and accumulate future picks because of high discount rate
Trading back is absolutely on the table for them especially if there is a team who loves someone in the Kyle Trask/Davis Mills tier of quarterbacks and wants the fifth year option. Teams do dumb things for quarterbacks and the Browns are in a spot to capitalize.
I know this is the worst possible outcome to people, but it may be the smartest move.
The COVID-19 protocols and safety measures have made this the most unpredictable draft in recent memory. These teams have not been in the same room with the players to work them out and get a feel for them. The pre draft process has all been virtual, so bailing out of the first round to get more picks for 2022, when things are closer to normal, may be the smartest.
Remember the great line from Mike McDermott in Rounders
For the good teams, the draft is not gambling, it is a skill game. Sometimes the skill is minimizing risk and bailing from a losing situation, especially when the future brings you more information for success.
I think the Browns have 10 players they love, if one of the 10 are there, they will take the player. If all 10 are gone, they are trading out of the first round.
This organization does not need to do anything. If the season began in a month, they would be a playoff favorite and have a bunch of Super Bowl buzz. This pick is more of a luxury than a requirement. It’s the benefit of being a good football team.
Three Quick Thoughts
1. If I am JB Bickerstaff, I am turning aging Kevin Love into my Nikola Jokic. Run the whole offense through him and let him use his brilliant ability to read the floor and find the open man. Collin Sexton becomes your diet Jamal Murray and Darius Garland is the third option who can create his own offense the Nuggets have needed for years,
2. If Jake Bauers needs a ride to the airport, I am available.
3. The Super League disaster is what happens when you don’t totally understand what you are buying. People were mad not because it was a blatant cash grab, but because there was nothing to keep the blatant cash grab in check. Promotion and relegation makes sure these teams spend money to put the best product on the field-- if you are going to just get piles of money no matter your performance, people will be infuriated.