(SportsRadio 610) - The Texans have dropped from one-point favorites to 2.5-point underdogs to the Browns because of the C.J. Stroud factor. He'll miss a second consecutive game and be replaced again by Case Keenum.
The Browns will counter with Joe Flacco, their fourth starting quarterback this season.
This game at NRG Stadium is crucial for both teams. The Browns, who are 1-4-1 against the spread on the road, are 9-5 and trying to win a wild card playoff berth. If they defeat the Texans, their chances to make the playoffs increase to 99 percent.
After the Texans, they host the Jets and visit the Bengals. The Texans are 8-6 with a closing schedule that includes the Browns and Titans at home and the Colts on the road.
The Browns have been a different team at home than on the road. They're 7-1 at home, and the NFL's No. 1 defense allows 13.1 points a game. They're 2-4 on the road and surrender 30.7. Obviously, the Texans hope that defensive trend continues at NRG Stadium.
DeMeco Ryans and Kevin Stefanski are legitimate candidates to be voted NFL Coach of the Year.
The Browns won at NRG Stadium last season. While the Texans and Browns are winding down preparations for their Christmas Eve game, here are five things to watch:
Quarterback Case Keenum will start a second consecutive game. He's now started three games in four seasons, including a 2-0 record with the Browns in 2021. He served as Baker Mayfield's backup for two seasons.
Keenum, 35, is a 12-year veteran who's played for seven teams, including three tours with the Texans. He was the surprise starter over Davis Mills last week and engineered a come-from-behind 19-16 overtime victory at Tennessee. He recovered from a 13-0 deficit in which he threw a pick-6. For the most part, he operated the offense smoothly and benefitted from a running game that accumulated 148 yards, including 121 by Devin Singletary.
Keenum is going against a defense that's No. 1 (261.1 yards), including first against the pass (158.9). Yards will be hard to come by, and getting rid of the ball quickly will be paramount to avoid getting crushed by defensive end Myles Garrett, who has 13 sacks but none in the last four games. Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, their leading tackler, is one of the league's best. He makes plays all over the field.
The Browns play a relentless, attacking defense under first-year coordinator Jim Schwartz, who's a leading candidate to be voted NFL Assistant Coach of the Year.
The Texans should get back leading receiver Nico Collins and right tackle George Fant, both of whom missed the Tennessee game. The receivers are going against an outstanding secondary that boasts cornerbacks – Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson Jr. -- who excel in man coverage.
If the Texans can't slow down the pass rush with a semblance of a running game, Keenum could get swarmed and crushed.
Quarterback Joe Flacco was back home in New Jersey playing pickleball, being a father and husband and staying in shape when the Browns called. After Deshaun Watson was lost for the season, veteran P.J. Walker and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson didn't give them the kind of play they needed even though both won games. Flacco, who turns 39 next month, answered the SOS and has breathed new life into the passing game.
Flacco is a 6-6, pure pocket passer who'll stand in under pressure. He's 2-1 as a starter, losing on the road to the Rams 36-19 and winning at home over the Jaguars 31-27 and Bears 20-17. His yardage total has increased from 254 to 311 and 374. In Sunday's three-point conquest of the Bears, he was able to overcome three interceptions and four sacks to ignite the victory.
The Browns have offensive linemen who are playing hurt, but if they can give Flacco time to throw, he'll connect with receivers down the field. He has seven touchdown passes, five interceptions and an 81.6 rating. No matter how well Flacco plays over the rest of the season and the playoffs, Watson will return as the starter next season because of his $230 million guarantee.
Joe Flacco is blessed with some formidable weapons. The Browns are 10th in rushing (123.7), despite losing Nick Chubb with a season-ending knee injury. Jerome Ford has 718 yards rushing and three touchdowns. He's also a reliable receiver with 39 catches and three touchdowns. Kareem Hunt has rushed for 369 yards and seven touchdowns.
Tight end David Njoku is Flacco's leading receiver with 69 receptions and five touchdowns. He could give the defense fits because he can make catches all over the field, including on deep routes. Because the Texans have experienced problems with tight ends, expect Flacco to go to Njoku early and often. Without linebacker Blake Cashman, Christian Harris needs a repeat of his Tennessee performance in which he was terrific in coverage. DeMeco Ryans might think about putting a safety on Njoku.
When Flacco goes down the field, he'll also look for Amari Cooper, who averages 16.1 yards on 61 catches and has three touchdowns. Watching second-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who's been outstanding since returning from a hamstring injury, cover Cooper is going to be worth the price of admission.
The Texans' corners – Stingley, Steven Nelson and Desmond King II – have been splendid in coverage and against the run. Flacco also will look for Elijah Moore, who has 52 receptions for 560 yards. Since Flacco was signed as a free agent three games ago, he's elevated the passing game that's become a powerful weapon with so many talented pass catchers, including rookie receiver Cedric Tillman.
The Texans' defensive line dominated the Titans on Sunday. The defense finished with seven sacks and 12 tackles for loss. Quarterback Will Levis was knocked down 11 times.
Like the Texans' offensive line that's had three left tackles, three left guards, four centers, one right guard (Shaq Mason) and four right tackles since the starters started dropping in training camp, the Browns also are hurting up front. They've lost three starting tackles – Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Dawand Jones – to injured reserve. Guards Joel Bitonio and Wade Teller, maybe the best combination in the league, are playing hurt.
With the exception of rookie end Will Anderson Jr., the Texans' defensive line is healthy and coming off an exceptional performance at Tennessee. End Jonathan Greenard recorded six tackles, 2.5 sacks, three hits on the quarterback, one tackle for loss, four pressures and a forced fumble.
Making his first start, Derek Barnett had four tackles, one sack, two pressures, two tackles for loss and two quarterback hits. Despite missing Anderson and linebacker Blake Cashman, who's also having an excellent season, the defense was impressive against the Titans and needs a repeat of that performance for a chance to upset the Browns.
What Case Keenum and Joe Flacco need desperately are running games that move the chains and slow down the pass rush. The Texans have been dominant against the run. They're sixth in the NFL (93.4) and second in average per carry (3.4).
Over the last 10 games, they've surrendered 85.3 yards. No opposing back has rushed for 90 yards. They shut down Tennessee's Derrick Henry with 9 yards on 16 carries after he'd averaged 203.6 in his previous five games against the Texans.
Cleveland's running game took a major hit when Nick Chubb was lost early in the season, but Jacoby Ford and Kareem Hunt have done a good job behind a great offensive line that's been decimated at tackle because of injuries. The Browns are 10th in rushing (123.7).
Keenum needs another strong effort from his offensive line to open holes for Devin Singletary. In the victory over the Titans, he reached 100 yards for the third time, and the Texans are unbeaten in those games.
The Texans are 22nd in rushing (100.3), and the Browns are 11th against the run (102.2). Before Tennessee, the Texans had gone three consecutive games without reaching triple digits.
This is another game that should be dominated by the defenses. The quarterback who plays the best should win.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
