AUSTIN (Talk1370.com) -- Increasing hospitalizations could trigger a move to Stage 5 in Austin Public Health's risk-based COVID-19 guidelines as early as next week, officials said Thursday.
Travis County interim health authority Dr. Mark Escott gave his weekly update to Travis County Commissioners Thursday afternoon.
"Depending on what the next several days look like, we could be looking at transitioning into Stage 5 territory as early as next week or perhaps the following week," Escott said.
Thursday night's COVID-19 report showed 427 new cases of COVID-19 in Travis County - the highest single-day case total since July 21. 54 new COVID-19 hospital admissions were reported across the five county metro area, with total COVID-19 hospitalizations now at 280. 79 of those patients are in intensive care, with 46 on ventilators. The 7-day moving average of new hospitalizations, a key indicator that officials are watching, is now at 40.
"40 is a place we haven’t been since July 30th and represents significant concern regarding what the future over the next several weeks is going to bring," Escott said.
Escott said the projections from the University of Texas Modeling Consortium show that this could just be the beginning of a surge - if the community doesn't take steps to limit the spread of the virus.
"What these projections are showing is that we will have a significant increase in cases at the end of this month and into January," Escott said.
Based on a model run from Tuesday, Escott said Travis County could hit the threshold for moving to Stage 5 just after the Christmas holiday, on December 28 or 29. However, Escott says the model data appears to be a little optimistic.
"If it continues down that more aggressive path, that more pessimistic path that we’re seeing now, then we could crossover into Stage 5 territory as soon as next week," Escott said.
Stage 5 is a level that Austin has yet to reach during the pandemic. Escott touched on what that could mean for residents.
"Once we hit that Stage 5 territory, it's important for us to consider how we're going to decrease risk further," Escott said. "Those recommendations are likely to include eliminating extra-curricular activities at schools, strongly recommending that individuals only go to retail or restaurants for take-away or delivery, and we would strongly recommend a curfew as well. We simply cannot take the risk of having a substantial, catastrophic surge like we have seen."
