AUSTIN (Talk1370.com) -- Despite a drop in hospital and case numbers, area health leaders aren't ready to drop to Stage 2 in Austin Public Health's COVID-19 risk-based guidelines just yet.
"A lot of people are asking why haven’t we shifted our staging to Stage 2 and I want to talk about that and explain that doctors like to not just treat disease, but we like to prevent disease and illness," said Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County's local health authority.
Officials have long pointed to the 7-day moving average of new hospitalizations as a key metric for determining the risk stage for the area under the APH guidelines. While that will continue to be a part of what health leaders look at when determining whether to make a change, they're also keeping an eye on the 7-day moving average of community transmission - how likely you are to get COVID-19 within the community.
"There is still a fairly high community transmission and we can't rule out another surge in the near future," said Walkes.
The community transmission rate is based on a 7-day average of the number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents. As of Friday, that metric is at 51.41 - but it's also dropped 23% in the last 7 days. Under the CDC's guidelines, that classifies as "substantial."
"We’re not actually making a shift, we’re making it known that this is part of what is driving the decisions that are made with regards to staging," said Walkes.
The decision to stay at Stage 3 comes with officials looking towards the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays - what APH Chief Epidemiologist referred to as the "seasonality of disease," with the regular batch of colds and influenza in addition to COVID-19.
Officials are also urging parents of children who are 5-11 years old to get their COVID-19 vaccinations, now that the child-sized vaccinations have been approved. There are some 115,000 children in that age group in Travis County.
"Delta caused severe disease and more hospitalizations and we don't want to see that again. Flu will be more prevalent this year," said Walkes.
