The Cook Political Report has moved Texas’ U.S. Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, and prediction market Polymarket now gives Democrat James Talarico a 52% chance of winning — a result that would give Democrats the seat for the first time since 1988.
Cook announced the ratings change Thursday. Jessica Taylor, the report’s Senate editor, wrote that public and private polling shows the contest between Talarico, a state representative from Austin, and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is more competitive than a Lean Republican rating reflected. “We see the Senate now as a toss up, one that still might slightly favor Republicans. But it is an increasingly competitive opportunity for Democrats,” Taylor said, according to CNN.
Polymarket posted Thursday that Talarico was favored at 52% to flip the seat. The market is a betting venue, not a poll; prices can move on a relatively small volume of trades. As of Thursday, the Texas Senate contracts had hundreds of thousands of dollars in volume, according to Polymarket.
BREAKING: James Talarico now favored to flip Texas’ U.S. Senate seat blue for the first time since 1988.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 20, 2026
52% chance. pic.twitter.com/9ml3XmDFKR
With these changes, we now see the overall race for the Senate as a toss up, but one in which Republicans may still hold the slimmest of advantages.
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) August 20, 2026
Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis: https://t.co/2m6k0Yp8mE
The general election is Nov. 3. Talarico won the Democratic primary in March. Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff. Lloyd Bentsen was the last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas, in 1988.
Recent public polls have been close. An Emerson College survey of likely voters Aug. 9–10 showed Paxton 47% and Talarico 46%. Earlier July surveys from Texas A&M/Siena, TSU/YouGov and Fox News showed Talarico ahead by 2 to 4 points, within or near the margins of error. RealClearPolitics has listed the race as a toss-up.
Cook also moved Iowa’s Senate race to Toss-Up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rates Texas Lean Republican. Talarico has reported a large fundraising lead over Paxton in FEC filings through June 30.
