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Talarico holds edge over Paxton in fourth consecutive poll

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a press conference at the Hyatt Centric Congress Avenue on July 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a press conference at the Hyatt Centric Congress Avenue on July 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

State Rep. James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate in a fourth consecutive poll, according to new data released by Texas A&M University.

The latest survey shows the Democratic nominee, Talarico, leading the Republican Paxton 47% to 43%. The two candidates were previously tied at 46% in Texas A&M’s June polling.


Respondents favored Talarico on key campaign issues, including affordability, the war in Iran, and personal honesty. Paxton maintained an edge over Talarico on the issue of border security.

The shift reflects broader momentum for Democrats across statewide races in Texas, with several high-profile Republicans seeing their leads shrink or evaporate:

Gov. Greg Abbott holds a narrow 1% lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, leading 46% to 45%. Abbott previously held a 6-point advantage in June. In one of the survey's most surprising results, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick trails Democratic State Rep. Vikki Goodwin 48% to 46%.

The survey highlights a tightening political landscape across the state as candidates enter the final stretch of their campaigns.