Texas public schools saw enrollment fall by 76,613 students at the start of the 2025-26 school year, marking the largest single-year decline outside the COVID-19 pandemic in nearly four decades.
According to a new report from the nonpartisan policy group Texas 2036, total public school enrollment dropped 1.4 percent to below 5.5 million students. The decline occurred even as the state’s overall population continued to grow. Hispanic students made up 81 percent of the loss — about 61,781 students — with nearly 60 percent of the drop concentrated in elementary grades.
The report points to structural shifts behind the numbers: lower birth rates in recent years, changing migration patterns that affected 18 of the state’s 20 education service center regions, and more families choosing charter schools, private schools or homeschooling. Urban districts in Houston, Dallas and the Rio Grande Valley saw some of the largest losses.
🚨 NEW REPORT: Texas schools lost more than 76,000 students in a single year — the second-largest single-year enrollment decline in modern state history, and the largest outside of COVID-19.
— Texas 2036 (@Texas2036) May 11, 2026
Texas 2036's new report examines what's driving the decline: https://t.co/lQ6zviKJGt… pic.twitter.com/EswBzcPzI6
“What stands out in the data is that public school enrollment is falling even as Texas continues to grow,” said Carlo Castillo, senior research analyst at Texas 2036.
School funding in Texas is tied closely to enrollment counts, so the drop could put budget pressure on districts in coming years. The elementary losses also signal a smaller pipeline of students moving into middle and high schools. Texas 2036 projects public school enrollment could shrink by another 100,000 students by the end of the decade.
