In the immediate aftermath of Dallas’ week one loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, there wasn’t a lot of optimism surrounding the Cowboys. The entire team came out flat, and quarterback Dak Prescott was lost for several weeks to a fractured thumb.
Fast-forward to today and the Cowboys are riding a three-game win streak with Cooper Rush at the helm, and look to make it four on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
Here’s a look at some of the keys to the game:
Don't let the Rams establish the ground game
The Rams rushing attack has been absolutely brutal through the first four weeks of this season. It’s not just that the Rams choose not to run the ball very often (second-to-last in attempts) it’s that they’re wildly inefficient when they do.
The Rams are averaging a pitiful 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. They’re picking up five yards or more on rushing attempts just 33% of the time, which ranks in the bottom quarter of the NFL. On rushing attempts with two yards or fewer to go for a first down, the Rams are only picking up a first down 58.3% of the time, which is tied for the sixth-worst percentage in the league. The Cowboys on those same attempts have converted 100% of the time this season.
While running the ball has been a struggle for the Rams, stopping the run is the one area that still seems to challenge the Cowboys defense. Dallas has allowed at least 140 rushing yards in three of their four games this season, and they’re allowing a league-high 6.5 yards per carry on attempts to the right side.
Sean McVay is going to at least try to run the football, even though the Rams haven’t been very good at it. When you see a team really struggle to stop something in particular, you have to attempt to exploit it, even if it isn’t a strength of yours.
If the Cowboys want to win this game it’s absolutely critical that they don’t allow the Rams to take something they don’t do very well and abuse the Cowboys with it. That’s a sure recipe for a loss.
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Make Matthew Stafford uncomfortable
One of the keys to Dallas’ success on defense this year has been their ability to get to the quarterback. Dallas leads the NFL in QB hits this year with 36 and they rank second in pressure percentage, registering a hurry, hit, or sack on 32.7% of opponent dropbacks.
The Rams are one of the league’s worst teams when it comes to protecting their quarterback. The Rams have allowed an average of four sacks per game, and Matthew Stafford has been sacked on 9.6% of his dropbacks, which is the highest figure of his career.
Stafford is an incredible talent at the quarterback position, but he has a bit of irrational confidence at times. He’s a risk taker who firmly believes in his ability to make every throw, which is why he’s one of the more turnover prone quarterbacks in the league. When you have a quarterback who already makes questionable decisions and then you’re able to generate pressure on top of that, that quarterback tends to give you opportunities to take away the ball.
Dallas needs to take advantage of the combination of Los Angeles’ porous offensive line and Stafford’s occasional recklessness throwing the football.
Attack the middle of the field
One of the things that stood out on tape about the Rams loss last week to the 49ers is how much San Francisco was able to take advantage of in-breaking routes. Jimmy Garoppolo was able to effectively move the chains with slants and digs. The Rams weren’t able to defend the 49ers’ passing game between the hashes.
Cooper Rush has shown he is a much better passer when he keeps things in the middle of the field. Rush’s passer rating is 50 points higher in the middle of the field than to the right or left this season. His completion percentage is 76.5% in the middle of the field, and it dips below 58% when he goes outside the hashes.
The Rams’ susceptibility in the middle of the field is a hand-in-glove match for Cooper Rush’s game. The Cowboys need to make sure they allow Rush to attack the Rams defense on in-breaking routes on Sunday.
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