(SportsRadio 610) - The Texans put up a lackluster effort in Sunday’s 31-3 loss to Jacksonville – their most lopsided defeat of the season.
It came on the heels of three consecutive impressive performances in losses to Dallas (27-24) and Kansas City (30-24 in overtime) and a victory over Tennessee (19-14).
They finish the season at Indianapolis, where the Colts are favored by 2 ½ points. They tied 20-20 in the first game of the season at NRG Stadium.
Here are some weekly observations on the Texans and Colts and what this game could mean for each team.
FIRST OVERALL PICK IS AT STAKE
If the Texans lose to the Colts, as they’re projected to do, they’ll finish 2-14-1, the NFL’s worst record. That’ll tie the franchise record for the fewest victories and the most defeats. Their record also will be worse than the 2021 season when they finished 4-13 in David Culley’s only season as coach.
If the Texans lose to the Colts, they’ll secure the first overall pick in the draft. The Texans have made the first pick three times – 2002 with quarterback David Carr, 2006 with defensive end Mario Williams and 2014 with defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.
At this early point in the scouting process, the four-best prospects – depending on which experts you pay attention to – are Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter and two quarterbacks – Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.
For the Texans’ sake, it will be nice if general manager Nick Caserio has his choice of every prospect in the draft.
Young or Stroud to become the first franchise quarterback drafted since Deshaun Watson in 2017? Or Carter playing next to Maliek Collins or Anderson lining up outside as a dynamic pass rusher, which the Texans haven’t had since J.J. Watt.
It’ll be difficult for Caserio to go wrong.
TOP PICK A TOPIC OF CONVERSATION
Lovie Smith, who could be coaching his last game with the Texans, is aware of all the talk about the Texans getting the first overall pick and who that player might be. The worst they can do is to pick second behind Chicago. The Texans would have to beat the Colts, and the Bears would have to defeat the Vikings.
“Where are we right now, you say the No. 1 overall pick can help?” Smith said this week in response to a question from the media. “Is that what you said? Yeah. How about the No. 2 overall, can that help? Yeah. No. 3 -- there’s a lot of picks that can help. That’s how I look at that.
“We know the picks we have coming in (and) we’re going to add a lot of good players. As you look at history a little on whether you get the first, second or third pick, you never really know how they’ll turn out. I think, eventually, it helps when you can get some of those top guys. I think it’s safe to say we’re going to get some impact players that’ll help us. We understand what position we’re in right now.”
PITRE ON RECORD PACE FOR ROOKIES
One of the few bright spots in a dark season has been rookie safety Jalen Pitre. Through 16 games, the second-round pick from Baylor has 139 tackles and five interceptions.
Dating back to 2000, he’s the first rookie to have at least 125 tackles and five interceptions.
Pitre probably will finish second in Texans’ history in tackles behind linebacker DeMeco Ryans, who had 156 in 2006. Pitre is tied for second among NFL rookies with five interceptions, one fewer than Seattle cornerback Tariq Woolen. If Pitre intercepts a pass against the Colts, he’ll tie cornerback Dunta Robinson’s team rookie record.
Pitre has no prayer of winning the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award. That’ll go to Jets’ cornerback Sauce Gardner.
“He’s been productive,” Lovie Smith said. “He’s made a lot of tackles, and he has missed a lot of tackles. You just look at his football intellect. That’s been obvious (from) how he’s played. He has ball skills. There’s just so many good things he’s done. I know he’s excited about one more opportunity.”
COLTS BETTER THAN TEXANS
Despite their six-game losing streak after a 4-5-1 start, overall, the Colts have been a better team than the Texans. That being said, the Texans are capable of winning at Lucas Oil Stadium but only if they play the way they did in close losses to Dallas and Kansas City and the victory over Tennessee and not the way they played in losing by 28 points to Jacksonville.
In the first game of the season, the Texans had the Colts down 20-3 in the fourth quarter before collapsing and finishing with the 20-20 tie. Going into the last game, here’s how the Texans and Colts stack up in the key statistics: Indianapolis has an advantage in offense (29th compared to 32nd), rushing (24th to 31st) and passing (23rd to 25th).
Defensively, the Colts have an advantage in yards (16th to 30th), against the run (23rd to 32nd) and against the pass (10th to 12th).
The Texans’ biggest difference can be found in turnover differential. They’re minus-1. The Colts are a league-worst minus-13.
If the Texans are going to win their last game, it looks as if they’ll have to win the turnover battle to have their best opportunity.
TEXANS DON’T HAVE TO FACE TAYLOR
Another reason the Texans might be able to defeat the Colts is because they don’t have to play against running back Jonathan Taylor. He’s on injured reserve and replaced by Zack Moss.
In his last three games against the Texans, Taylor averaged 25 carries, 153 yards, 5.9 per rush and scored five touchdowns. In the tie to begin the season, he carried 31 times for 161 yards (5.2 average) and a touchdown. He finished an injury-plagued season with 861 yards.
The Texans and Colts have rushed for seven touchdowns apiece, tied for second worst in the NFL to the Bucs’ 5. Taylor scored four of those touchdowns – the same number Dameon Pierce scored in his rookie season with the Texans. Like Taylor, Pierce finished the season on injured reserve.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on Sports Radio 610 and Monday and Thursday on Texans Radio. He write three times a week and does three Houtopia Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com. He also can be read four times a week on GallerySports.com.