(SportsRadio 610) - General manager Nick Caserio is sitting in the catbird seat and smiling like he swallowed a canary.
We all know the Panthers are going to use the first pick Thursday on quarterback Bryce Young. Then the fun begins with the second pick, and that fun begins with Caserio, who has final say on all personnel decisions and will make the Texans’ selection.
Two NFL head coaches reminded me last week that teams don’t win Super Bowls with edge rushers – they win with outstanding play at quarterback. I saw a former player analyzing the draft for ESPN, and he pointed out how Cleveland defensive end Myles Garrett, a former first overall pick, is an exceptional pass rusher, but the Browns have made the playoffs one time in his first six seasons.
Caserio and coach DeMeco Ryans can’t overthink this draft. They don’t plan to have the second overall pick again. If they like Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud or Hendon Hooker, don’t get cute. They have to come out of the first round with one of them.
Defensive end Tyree Wilson is the odds-on favorite to be the Texans’ first pick of the first round. He’s a tremendous prospect, but he suffered a season-ending foot injury in November that required surgery. He was unable to work out for teams, only performing the bench press at the combine.
If not Wilson, then Will Anderson Jr. They’re in a class by themselves when it comes to edge rushers, a huge need for the Texans.
Caserio isn’t afraid to use high picks on players who experienced injury issues in college, so don’t expect him to shy away from Wilson. Last year, Caserio drafted cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. third overall. Stingley had a foot injury at LSU. He missed the last eight games of his rookie season with a hamstring injury.
Caserio traded back into the second round last year to select receiver John Metchie III. He suffered a torn ACL in Alabama’s SEC Championship Game. He wouldn’t have been ready to start the season, but then he was diagnosed with Leukemia and missed his rookie season while undergoing treatment. All signs point to him being able to play this season.
If Caserio takes Wilson or Anderson, he’s got to find a way to finagle the 12th pick of the first round to get Stroud, Levis, Richardson or Hooker. All have their strengths and weaknesses. If the Texans draft one of them, it’ll be up to offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and quarterbacks coach Jerrod Johnson to make sure the rookie gets the best coaching possible.
Once it became clear Young was going to Carolina, the Texans were on the clock. Stroud was the popular pick among fans and media, including former players, coaches and general managers providing their expertise for networks or websites.
Caserio and Ryans may love Stroud, but if they do, they’ve done an incredible job of keeping that love a secret. All indications are Caserio isn’t going to select Stroud with his first draft choice.
Levis is getting a lot of attention over possibly going to the Texans with the second pick or the Colts with the fourth. Indianapolis could trade up with the Texans or Cardinals.
If general manager Chris Ballard convinces Caserio to swap spots – and pays dearly for the privilege – the Colts will have their choice of every quarterback other than Young. If Ballard swaps with the Cardinals, he still might have his choice of four quarterbacks if the Texans take Wilson or Anderson.
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There’s speculation the Colts like Levis over Stroud. If the Texans bypass Stroud, and he goes to Indianapolis and plays against them two times every season, he’ll have a chance to rub it in their faces for the next 10 years.
So where does that leave the Texans? They can’t botch this decision. If they take Wilson or Anderson at two, they better become perennial Pro Bowl selections after getting drafted that high. The Texans’ pick will have a nice honeymoon with the fans, but then he must be a better pass rusher than Jadeveon Clowney and at least the equal of Mario Williams – defensive ends who were first overall picks.
If the Texans draft Levis, he’ll get booed by the fans – many of who booed J.J. Watt in 2011 – at Miller Outdoor Theater. But at least Ryans will have a highly rated prospect he can build up and build around. Davis Mills or Case Keenum might start the season, but it’ll only be a matter of time before Levis plays. It’s not like the Texans are going to the playoffs in Ryans’ first season.
If the Texans take Richardson, he might need to sit out a season. He started only 13 games at Florida, including 12 last season. He compiled a 6-6 record in 2022, but he’s got unbelievable talent. He’s a project, but fans would be excited to get him.
Hooker’s stock is on the rise, but if the Texans think they can get him with the 12th pick in the first round, they shouldn’t chance it. The Titans could take him. Depending on what quarterbacks are left, Caserio should find a way to trade up and not risk losing the prospect he likes, whether it’s Hooker, Levis or Richardson.
Then again, if Caserio wants to shock the world, he should just go ahead and draft Stroud with the second overall pick. At this point, that might be the biggest surprise of all.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Thursday on Texans Radio. He writes three times a week and does two Houtopia Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com. He also can be read four times a week on GallerySports.com.