We are almost a week removed from the first Astros season without a postseason win since 2016, starting an offseason that will set the course of the organization for the foreseeable future. Here are the three biggest questions they face:
Will Alex Bregman return?
Bregman is set to hit the open market the day after the World Series concludes, and he will do so after putting up an .852 OPS over his final 94 games, while playing elite defense, despite a bum elbow. MLB.com rates him as the fourth best overall free agent and top third baseman available on the market.
"Of course, we're going to have some conversations with Bregman, in terms of coming back," Astros general manager Dana Brown said Thursday. "He's done an outstanding job here. He's been a pillar in this organization and a big part of winning."
Bregman said very little about his contract status during the season, and continued that approach Wednesday after the Astros postseason run ended, but Jose Altuve has been quite vocal about his belief the team needs to re-sign Bregman and his confidence that something will get done.
"I don't want to get to the idea of thinking about (this being the) last game with Breggy," Altuve said. I'm pretty confident that he's going to be our third baseman next year, we have to (re-sign him). We're not going to be the same organization without him."
To bring Bregman back, the Astros will have to dive into uncharted waters. Last month, the Giants signed third baseman Matt Chapman to a six-year, $151 million extension right before he was about to join Bregman on the open market. Chapman had a better 2024, but Bregman has the better overall resume, and he's a year younger. Six-years is the longest contract the Astros have handed out in the Jim Crane era, and $151 million is the most the team has ever guaranteed a player. Signing Bregman will require them to eclipse both records.
"He means a lot," Altuve said. "He gave a lot to this organization, so now it's time for us to, as a team, this organization, to pay him back and make him stay here."
Altuve told Bregman Wednesday wouldn't be the last time he'd wear an Astros uniform, but it was if we use history as our guide. Michael Brantley after the 2020 season and Justin Verlander after Tommy John Surgery are the only prominent players the Astros have re-signed after they hit free agency. Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Verlander after winning the Cy Young in 2022 have all left for greener pastures.
"I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people that we have in that clubhouse," Astros manager Joe Espada said Thursday. "He's one of the best I've ever been around, so I would love to have Alex Bregman playing third base for us next year."
Who plays third base if Bregman is gone?
FanGraphs rated Zach Dezenzo as the Astros sixth best prospect in June, but they didn't view him as an everyday player. The Astros 12th round pick in 2022 slashed .242/.277/.371 in 65 Major League plate appearances, but he struck out 33.8 percent of the time and did not start a game at third base.
Shay Whitcomb started eight games at third base when Bregman was dealing with his sore elbow. He went 2-for-3 in his Major League debut against the White Sox, but slashed .184/.262/.237 in his last 42 plate appearances. He was also charged with four errors after replacing Bregman in the fourth inning of the Astros final regular season home game.
2023 first round pick Brice Matthews is an interesting wild card. He put up an .265/.384/.441 slash line in 42 games for Double-A Corpus Christi, earning a promotion to Sugar Land for the stretch run, but he slashed just .143/.250/.191 in 48 plate appearances against Triple-A pitching, with a 39.6 percent strikeout rate. He's also started just 21 games at third base in professional baseball after playing just six games at the hot corner in three seasons at Nebraska.
If the Astros were to look outside the organization, Eugenio Suarez could be a viable option, but the Diamondbacks hold a $15 million option on him for 2025, and there's no reason to think they wouldn't pick that up. The best free agent third baseman after that would be J.D. Davis, Gio Urshela, or Yoán Moncada.
While it would further deplete an already barren farm system, the Astros could look to acquire Bregman's replacement via a trade.
Colorado's Ryan McMahon is one of the sport's best defensive third baseman, but he faded offensively after he was named to his first All-Star team. The 29-year old is owed $44 million over the next three seasons, and he could thrive as A guy with the Astros opposed as THE guy with the Rockies, but they have shown no inclination to trade McMahon, even when his value was at its highest this summer, and McMahon has made it clear he wants to remain with the team that drafted him in 2013.
Nolan Arenado preceded McMahon as Colorado's third baseman, and as the Cardinals find themselves in a bit of a transition period, the 10-time Gold Glove winner and eight-time All-Star could be available. While he remains one of the best defenders at third base, Arenado, 33, just completed the worst offensive season of his 12-year Major League career since he was a rookie in 2013.
Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause and is owed $64 by the Cardinals over the next three years, has gone from 34 home runs in 2021 to 16 home runs in 2024.
Extensions for Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez?
General manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada took questions from reporters for over 35 minutes on Thursday and at no point did extensions for Tucker and Valdez come up. Both are set to become free agents the 2025 season, so the time for getting extensions done has likely long since passed, at least in Tucker's case. The Astros approach has always been to take guys to free agency, watch them leave, and take the comp pick, but they should seriously consider trading both this offseason, especially if Bregman walks.
Trading both would give the Astros a little financial flexibility and make them a little less top heavy, and most importantly, it would also help them restock their depleted minor league system. Dylan Cease had an extra year of club control when the White Sox traded him last spring, but he netted two players inside FanGraphs' top 100 prospect list, plus two other highly thought of prospects.
Trading Tucker and Valdez would lessen the Astros chances of making it back to the postseason in 2025, but it wouldn't destroy them. Top prospect Jacob Melton doesn't profile as a right fielder, but he could get a shot out there, or the Astros could look to free agency where Anthony Santander is coming off a 44-homer season.
As for the rotation, the Astros could trade Valdez and still bring back Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ronel Blanco from last season's staff, re-sign Yusei Kikuchi, hope Luis Garcia can come back and feel pretty good about their rotation.
Think of this as a soft reset much like how the Padres lost Josh Hader in free agency and then traded Juan Soto last winter, only to win 93 games and make the playoffs.
