KANSAS CITY - The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral for the month, according to the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a region with Kansas and nine other states dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
According to the latest trade data from the ITA, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 10 months of 2025 stood at $1.3 billion, compared to $1.1 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 17.9% increase.
The region’s overall reading for January is its highest reading since July 2023, and up from December.
“More than one of three bankers, or 34.7%, indicated that their local economy was currently in a recession. Another 26.9% expect their local economy to experience recession conditions in the first half of 2026,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Regarding President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, almost four of 10 bankers, or 38.4%, support pulling back on tariffs.
As stated by one bank CEO in the December survey, “Low grain prices and higher input costs continue to plague our area farmers. The Trump $12B payment to producers will help but is not a cure.”
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, meets January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by .25%. Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.
After rising above growth neutral in December, the farm and ranchland index fell below the threshold for January.
According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 10 months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell from $9.9 billion in 2024 to $9.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 2.4%.
The farm equipment sales index remained very weak, but was up from December. “This is the 29th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the impending $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment purchases,” said Goss.
Hiring: The new hiring index for January rose from December; “Job gains for non-farm rural employers have been soft for the last several months,” said Goss.
Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their areas during the next six months. The January confidence index had its highest reading since February 2023, and up from December. “Despite $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, continue to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss.