DAVE MURRAY’S EXCLUSIVE WINTER FORECAST FOR ST. LOUIS...2025-2026:
.
The Fall season was an interesting ride…the weirdest being October…the first half…warm and bone dry…the second half cool and rather wet really helping the drought situation. The first widespread freeze holding off until November…around the 9th/10th…and that was a cold shot!
Yes…overall temperature has been cooling down…day and night…it has to, with the shorter days.
.
We all know… Winter is on the way.
.
The Winter forecast is always the king of the hill…the most interesting and always the toughest of the seasonal forecasts. So there may be great glories ahead but there are also the possibilities of great busts too. Long range forecasting is not easy.
.
There are several keys to the Winter forecast this season...that’s always fun and no question this is a big time challenge...but that is always true with my long range seasonal forecasts.
.
One of the keys…La Nina. Now…the overall large scale has a La Nina base…but thinking it is rather weak…at times may be very hard to find. In fact my ideas are more neutral than anything else…that means interesting times ahead. Two other things…warm Pacific waters along the west coast and cool waters…North Carolina and points north, in the Atlantic.
.
La Nina and El Nino and everything in-between are very important in long range forecasting…because it is all about ocean temperatures. You may be saying...who cares...that is not St. Louis or the middle of the nation...well…The oceans, that make up 70 percent of the Earth’s surface, are the true weather machine around the globe.
.
Again…as I have said many, many times...don’t get sucked into the broad-brush of the La Nina or El Nino game… this has become so common…not all are the same…no matter how much certain people in meteorology and climate want to make the cause and effect…always the same...don’t put all your eggs in one basket…that’s not weather forecasting.
.
Looking over other Winter ideas (after I put my forecast together)…it is a grab bag…you can find whatever you may like…ranging from warm and dry, warm and wet, cold and dry and cold and wet. You get the idea…there is nothing falling into place…but other ideas are not a concern to me, other than after the fact… you can’t depend on other ideas…esepcailly when you have no idea where they are coming from. Know the sources!
.
There are other items we have to keep in mind...There are about 20 factors that I look at and study when putting these long range forecasts together… And in my book they all have some weight in the final forecast...and this is just not a quick look...this is a process that goes on every day...weather is my life.
.
On to the factors that are in play… Here’s a short list...can’t give all my trade secrets away:).
The analogs...looking back at past weather and then moving forward to compare what's going on in our atmosphere now… The analogs are one of the most important things in my long range forecast. Have to look back on the hurricane season and look back on the month of October…Years of interest… 1956-57, 1967-68 and heavy weight on 1983-84 and 1989-90.
Why do I use analogs…From Ziggy Marley…”Don’t know your past…don’t know the future”.
The solar cycle… We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected over the next few months. Solar Cycle 24 was average in length, at 11 years, and had the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755.
World wide volcanoes… Not just the activity but the locations...critical in a long range forecast….volcanoes continue to be active.
.
There are a number of other features that I look at when it comes to the atmosphere and the oceans...without getting into too much detail...here are some of the items, and their abbreviations…Google to your heart's content:)
.
These are ocean related:
Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
These are atmospheric related:
West Pacific Oscillation (WPO)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA)
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Scandinavia (SCAND)
Wind related:
Quasi-Biennial (QBO)
Solar related:.
Solar Flux and geomagagnetic (Ap)
.
The most important:
A neutral to a little trend toward La Nina…my thinking is all neutral…I don’t like a full blown La Nina. A neutral pattern creates all kinds of havoc in a long term forecast and the atmosphere…that is one reason ideas all across the board…yep…you got it…this is not going to be much help…other than trends from a neutral pattern and there are several.
There appears to be a correlation in the hurricane season and the upcoming Winter…now it is not a broad brush…the correlation involves late season activity and what that means for the Winter forecast (see details in the actual forecast)...there was a monster at the end of the season.
One or two strato-warming events should take place this Winter.
The MEI which takes into account ocean and atmospheric variables is rather weak when looking at the entire global ocean patterns...negative
The ONI, the Oceanic Nino Index, is slightly negative.
Two very active flows in the jet stream...the northern jet with the cold air source and the southern jet with the moisture. Always the key in the STL area… When and where they link… Fun!.
The (QBO)...The Quasi-biennial Oscillation Index. In its easterly phase right now.
The NAO is trending negative.
Watching a cold PDO…non El Nino
.
Least important… But important:
Tropical North Atlantic (TNA)
The eastern pacific oscillation (EPO)
Pacific North American (PNA)
Western and Eastern Pacific Oscillation (WPO)(EPO)
.
Enough of all that…The Winter season in STL.
DECEMBER:
.
December Facts:
December 1st…sunrise: 7:00…sunset: 4:40
December 31st...sunrise: 7:19…sunset: 4:50
Average high and low: 44.5/28.5…Records: 76(2021)/-16(1989)
Average rainfall: 2.50”
Average snowfall: 3.2”
.
DECEMBER DATES:
The Full Moon…December 4th…The full Cold moon
The Winter Solstice…December 21st
Christmas Day…December 25th
.
The major factors:
*** This should be an interesting month…I’m going to walk way out on a limb here…wayout…that should get your interest. A neutral La Nina and late season hurricane action (Melissa) are pushing me out on that limb. This will either be great or crash and burn.
*** As Winter sets in we will see some wild swings…much like October and November.
*** There is going to be lots of cold weather over much of Alaska and much of Canada… and with a big developing snowpack…this becomes the start of the highway of cold times…especially with the water temperatures along the west coast and off the east coast.
*** I want to bring a cold shot in early December and then again late December…let’s think after the 20th…will this be a one and done cold shot…that is the question…I don’t think so.
*** Thinking when we add the month up...temperatures will be near to a touch below average. However with a cold snap early and late…temps in the middle will be above average…one of those months.
*** How about records...December records are intense...again not expecting huge cold...so no records…high or low.
*** Moisture will be interesting… We always play with the atmospheric battle of the northern and the southern storm tracks...the northern track...the Alberta clipper flow and the southern track brings the tricky southwest storms… both flows in play but I don’t see big time punches from either flow.
*** So my thinking is rainfall and snowfall will be below average when looking at the entire month.
.
The Christmas forecast
.
Of course this is the big one...another time to go way, way out on a limb and try to forecast a one day event… A tough thing to do in a long range forecast...but as we all know...that has never stopped me… Yes, the limb can break off at any time… but that's the challenge in true forecasting. Some facts:
Probability: There is a 20% chance of a white Christmas in the St. Louis area in any given year.
Recent Occurrences: The last time St. Louis officially had a white Christmas was in 2022.
Average Snowfall: While snow does fall in St. Louis during winter (averaging 18 inches per season), most of it typically occurs in January and February.
Definition: For it to be an "official" white Christmas, there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground by 6:00 a.m. on Christmas Day. The chance of measurable new snowfall on Christmas Day itself is even lower, around 13%
.
So…dealing with the see-saw pattern but the cold snap toward the end of the month is in my forecast…everything has to link together…and again moisture (rain and snow) below average for the month…snow bunnies you sense where I’m heading...drum roll please...this Christmas...2025…I’m expecting a WHITE Christmas in St. Louis...man, I can't believe I said that! I don’t think we are looking at a big storm system…but a shot of a little snow around the holidays.
.
Things to look for in December:
***the great horned owls begin courting
***check out the sky--easy to spot the winter constellation... orion
*** the bald eagles start to arrive in good numbers
.
JANUARY:
.
January Facts:
January 1st…sunrise: 7:19…sunset: 4:51
January 31st...sunrise: 7:08…sunset: 5:22
Average high and low: 40.4/23.8 Records: 77(1950)/-22(1884)
Average rainfall: 2.59”
Average snowfall: 5.7”
.
JANUARY DATES:
New Years Day…January 1st
The Full Moon…January 3rd…the full wolf moon
Martin Luther King Day…January 19th
.
The major factors:
.
*** Let’s flip the overall setup in the atmosphere…wicked cold air over Canada but in January it will struggle to release over the middle of the nation…the Great Lakes and the Northeast…yes, but missing us, for the most part…but not completely.
*** We should start the New Year off with a cold spell (if my December ideas come true) but this is not going to be a Winter month. A weak to neutral La Nina in play but not very impressed with it.
*** Could the late December cold snap be a one and done event…certainly thinking that is true in January.
*** As a result, I’m thinking temperatures...will end up to be above average…not a lot above average, but above average…as the deep cold stays in Canada, the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
*** How about the January thaw…well since I’m expecting above average temperatures…have to call for no January Thaw…the bulk of the month…the thaw.
*** As for records...again the powerful cold will be to our north and northeast and records in the heart of Winter are intense…January records will be hard to come by…no records…high or low.
*** The core storm track for the first two weeks will be well to our north…keeping moisture and the cold air away….anything we see, should mainly be rain…however…expecting one intrusion of cold air from the north and a storm system moving out of the Texas Panhandle, leading the way for the cold…it's a one shot deal for the snow bunnies…let's think mid to late month…but let’s not hold our breath.
*** So one solid shot in January, of a Winter mix…rain, sleet and ice going to all snow on the backside of the low pressure system. Way too early for exact tracks, etc. But it is something to watch.
*** Moisture…rainfall will be below average and snowfall will be below average…but not snow-free with that one shot system.
.
Things to look for in January:
.
***look for the red-tailed hawks perched along highways...looking for food
***watch for chickadees feeding up and down trees
***Beavers begin breeding this month.
.
FEBRUARY:
.
February Facts:
February 1st…sunrise: 7:07…sunset: 5:23
February 28th...sunrise: 6:33…sunset: 5:54
Average high and low: 45.8/27.6 Records: 85(1972)/-18(1905)
Average rainfall: 2.23”
Average snowfall: 4.3”
.
FEBRUARY DATES:
The Full Moon…February 1st…the full snow moon
Valentine’s Day…February 14th
President’s Day…February 16th
.
The major factors:
.
*** This is going to be an interesting month for our weather…with the analogs I’m riding on and a weak to neutral La Nina and warm waters along the west coast and cool along the east coast (yes lots of moving parts)
thinking this will be the coldest month of the Winter season.
*** The set up should allow building cold air over the Arctic and Canada to release over the middle of the nation…2 maybe three intrusions of the Arctic cold to come in… at least some snow-bunny hope.
*** Let’s think cold with below average temperatures… and some record low temperatures are possible at night…though records are very tough to come by.
*** With that said…the entire month will not be deep cold…temps will bounce…there will be mild spells…but the surges from the north will remind us, it is still very much Winter.
*** As for moisture… the northern storm track…will dip over us and we could get a system that comes screaming out of the southwest…you know the drill…the link of the cold air and moisture…we should see some link this February.
*** Let’s look for 2 to 3 storm systems….the mix of Clipper’s and southwest storms…it is all about the linkage.
*** So rainfall will be near average…snowfall…will be near to even a little above average…it only takes one and I’m at least thinking we have that shot.
*** For the Winter season(of course the snow season runs into early April)...but for the three months of Winter...thinking snowfall will be below average ...13 inches or less…(Average is 16-17 inches).
Let’s not lose hope snow-bunnies.
.
Things to look for in February:
.
***red flower buds of the silver maple swell with the first warm spell
***chickadees begin to sing--the first bird song of the year
***look for robins returning in large flocks
.
Enjoy the Winter season...some love it...some hate it, but you have to admit the weather is always fun and interesting in the middle of the nation...So let’s enjoy it. My Spring forecast will be out in mid to late February… seems like a long, long way off right now…it is! Time now for any questions or comments...would love to hear from you.
.
The Fall season was an interesting ride…the weirdest being October…the first half…warm and bone dry…the second half cool and rather wet really helping the drought situation. The first widespread freeze holding off until November…around the 9th/10th…and that was a cold shot!
Yes…overall temperature has been cooling down…day and night…it has to, with the shorter days.
.
We all know… Winter is on the way.
.
The Winter forecast is always the king of the hill…the most interesting and always the toughest of the seasonal forecasts. So there may be great glories ahead but there are also the possibilities of great busts too. Long range forecasting is not easy.
.
There are several keys to the Winter forecast this season...that’s always fun and no question this is a big time challenge...but that is always true with my long range seasonal forecasts.
.
One of the keys…La Nina. Now…the overall large scale has a La Nina base…but thinking it is rather weak…at times may be very hard to find. In fact my ideas are more neutral than anything else…that means interesting times ahead. Two other things…warm Pacific waters along the west coast and cool waters…North Carolina and points north, in the Atlantic.
.
La Nina and El Nino and everything in-between are very important in long range forecasting…because it is all about ocean temperatures. You may be saying...who cares...that is not St. Louis or the middle of the nation...well…The oceans, that make up 70 percent of the Earth’s surface, are the true weather machine around the globe.
.
Again…as I have said many, many times...don’t get sucked into the broad-brush of the La Nina or El Nino game… this has become so common…not all are the same…no matter how much certain people in meteorology and climate want to make the cause and effect…always the same...don’t put all your eggs in one basket…that’s not weather forecasting.
.
Looking over other Winter ideas (after I put my forecast together)…it is a grab bag…you can find whatever you may like…ranging from warm and dry, warm and wet, cold and dry and cold and wet. You get the idea…there is nothing falling into place…but other ideas are not a concern to me, other than after the fact… you can’t depend on other ideas…esepcailly when you have no idea where they are coming from. Know the sources!
.
There are other items we have to keep in mind...There are about 20 factors that I look at and study when putting these long range forecasts together… And in my book they all have some weight in the final forecast...and this is just not a quick look...this is a process that goes on every day...weather is my life.
.
On to the factors that are in play… Here’s a short list...can’t give all my trade secrets away:).
The analogs...looking back at past weather and then moving forward to compare what's going on in our atmosphere now… The analogs are one of the most important things in my long range forecast. Have to look back on the hurricane season and look back on the month of October…Years of interest… 1956-57, 1967-68 and heavy weight on 1983-84 and 1989-90.
Why do I use analogs…From Ziggy Marley…”Don’t know your past…don’t know the future”.
The solar cycle… We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected over the next few months. Solar Cycle 24 was average in length, at 11 years, and had the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755.
World wide volcanoes… Not just the activity but the locations...critical in a long range forecast….volcanoes continue to be active.
.
There are a number of other features that I look at when it comes to the atmosphere and the oceans...without getting into too much detail...here are some of the items, and their abbreviations…Google to your heart's content:)
.
These are ocean related:
Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
These are atmospheric related:
West Pacific Oscillation (WPO)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA)
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Scandinavia (SCAND)
Wind related:
Quasi-Biennial (QBO)
Solar related:.
Solar Flux and geomagagnetic (Ap)
.
The most important:
A neutral to a little trend toward La Nina…my thinking is all neutral…I don’t like a full blown La Nina. A neutral pattern creates all kinds of havoc in a long term forecast and the atmosphere…that is one reason ideas all across the board…yep…you got it…this is not going to be much help…other than trends from a neutral pattern and there are several.
There appears to be a correlation in the hurricane season and the upcoming Winter…now it is not a broad brush…the correlation involves late season activity and what that means for the Winter forecast (see details in the actual forecast)...there was a monster at the end of the season.
One or two strato-warming events should take place this Winter.
The MEI which takes into account ocean and atmospheric variables is rather weak when looking at the entire global ocean patterns...negative
The ONI, the Oceanic Nino Index, is slightly negative.
Two very active flows in the jet stream...the northern jet with the cold air source and the southern jet with the moisture. Always the key in the STL area… When and where they link… Fun!.
The (QBO)...The Quasi-biennial Oscillation Index. In its easterly phase right now.
The NAO is trending negative.
Watching a cold PDO…non El Nino
.
Least important… But important:
Tropical North Atlantic (TNA)
The eastern pacific oscillation (EPO)
Pacific North American (PNA)
Western and Eastern Pacific Oscillation (WPO)(EPO)
.
Enough of all that…The Winter season in STL.
DECEMBER:
.
December Facts:
December 1st…sunrise: 7:00…sunset: 4:40
December 31st...sunrise: 7:19…sunset: 4:50
Average high and low: 44.5/28.5…Records: 76(2021)/-16(1989)
Average rainfall: 2.50”
Average snowfall: 3.2”
.
DECEMBER DATES:
The Full Moon…December 4th…The full Cold moon
The Winter Solstice…December 21st
Christmas Day…December 25th
.
The major factors:
*** This should be an interesting month…I’m going to walk way out on a limb here…wayout…that should get your interest. A neutral La Nina and late season hurricane action (Melissa) are pushing me out on that limb. This will either be great or crash and burn.
*** As Winter sets in we will see some wild swings…much like October and November.
*** There is going to be lots of cold weather over much of Alaska and much of Canada… and with a big developing snowpack…this becomes the start of the highway of cold times…especially with the water temperatures along the west coast and off the east coast.
*** I want to bring a cold shot in early December and then again late December…let’s think after the 20th…will this be a one and done cold shot…that is the question…I don’t think so.
*** Thinking when we add the month up...temperatures will be near to a touch below average. However with a cold snap early and late…temps in the middle will be above average…one of those months.
*** How about records...December records are intense...again not expecting huge cold...so no records…high or low.
*** Moisture will be interesting… We always play with the atmospheric battle of the northern and the southern storm tracks...the northern track...the Alberta clipper flow and the southern track brings the tricky southwest storms… both flows in play but I don’t see big time punches from either flow.
*** So my thinking is rainfall and snowfall will be below average when looking at the entire month.
.
The Christmas forecast
.
Of course this is the big one...another time to go way, way out on a limb and try to forecast a one day event… A tough thing to do in a long range forecast...but as we all know...that has never stopped me… Yes, the limb can break off at any time… but that's the challenge in true forecasting. Some facts:
Probability: There is a 20% chance of a white Christmas in the St. Louis area in any given year.
Recent Occurrences: The last time St. Louis officially had a white Christmas was in 2022.
Average Snowfall: While snow does fall in St. Louis during winter (averaging 18 inches per season), most of it typically occurs in January and February.
Definition: For it to be an "official" white Christmas, there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground by 6:00 a.m. on Christmas Day. The chance of measurable new snowfall on Christmas Day itself is even lower, around 13%
.
So…dealing with the see-saw pattern but the cold snap toward the end of the month is in my forecast…everything has to link together…and again moisture (rain and snow) below average for the month…snow bunnies you sense where I’m heading...drum roll please...this Christmas...2025…I’m expecting a WHITE Christmas in St. Louis...man, I can't believe I said that! I don’t think we are looking at a big storm system…but a shot of a little snow around the holidays.
.
Things to look for in December:
***the great horned owls begin courting
***check out the sky--easy to spot the winter constellation... orion
*** the bald eagles start to arrive in good numbers
.
JANUARY:
.
January Facts:
January 1st…sunrise: 7:19…sunset: 4:51
January 31st...sunrise: 7:08…sunset: 5:22
Average high and low: 40.4/23.8 Records: 77(1950)/-22(1884)
Average rainfall: 2.59”
Average snowfall: 5.7”
.
JANUARY DATES:
New Years Day…January 1st
The Full Moon…January 3rd…the full wolf moon
Martin Luther King Day…January 19th
.
The major factors:
.
*** Let’s flip the overall setup in the atmosphere…wicked cold air over Canada but in January it will struggle to release over the middle of the nation…the Great Lakes and the Northeast…yes, but missing us, for the most part…but not completely.
*** We should start the New Year off with a cold spell (if my December ideas come true) but this is not going to be a Winter month. A weak to neutral La Nina in play but not very impressed with it.
*** Could the late December cold snap be a one and done event…certainly thinking that is true in January.
*** As a result, I’m thinking temperatures...will end up to be above average…not a lot above average, but above average…as the deep cold stays in Canada, the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
*** How about the January thaw…well since I’m expecting above average temperatures…have to call for no January Thaw…the bulk of the month…the thaw.
*** As for records...again the powerful cold will be to our north and northeast and records in the heart of Winter are intense…January records will be hard to come by…no records…high or low.
*** The core storm track for the first two weeks will be well to our north…keeping moisture and the cold air away….anything we see, should mainly be rain…however…expecting one intrusion of cold air from the north and a storm system moving out of the Texas Panhandle, leading the way for the cold…it's a one shot deal for the snow bunnies…let's think mid to late month…but let’s not hold our breath.
*** So one solid shot in January, of a Winter mix…rain, sleet and ice going to all snow on the backside of the low pressure system. Way too early for exact tracks, etc. But it is something to watch.
*** Moisture…rainfall will be below average and snowfall will be below average…but not snow-free with that one shot system.
.
Things to look for in January:
.
***look for the red-tailed hawks perched along highways...looking for food
***watch for chickadees feeding up and down trees
***Beavers begin breeding this month.
.
FEBRUARY:
.
February Facts:
February 1st…sunrise: 7:07…sunset: 5:23
February 28th...sunrise: 6:33…sunset: 5:54
Average high and low: 45.8/27.6 Records: 85(1972)/-18(1905)
Average rainfall: 2.23”
Average snowfall: 4.3”
.
FEBRUARY DATES:
The Full Moon…February 1st…the full snow moon
Valentine’s Day…February 14th
President’s Day…February 16th
.
The major factors:
.
*** This is going to be an interesting month for our weather…with the analogs I’m riding on and a weak to neutral La Nina and warm waters along the west coast and cool along the east coast (yes lots of moving parts)
thinking this will be the coldest month of the Winter season.
*** The set up should allow building cold air over the Arctic and Canada to release over the middle of the nation…2 maybe three intrusions of the Arctic cold to come in… at least some snow-bunny hope.
*** Let’s think cold with below average temperatures… and some record low temperatures are possible at night…though records are very tough to come by.
*** With that said…the entire month will not be deep cold…temps will bounce…there will be mild spells…but the surges from the north will remind us, it is still very much Winter.
*** As for moisture… the northern storm track…will dip over us and we could get a system that comes screaming out of the southwest…you know the drill…the link of the cold air and moisture…we should see some link this February.
*** Let’s look for 2 to 3 storm systems….the mix of Clipper’s and southwest storms…it is all about the linkage.
*** So rainfall will be near average…snowfall…will be near to even a little above average…it only takes one and I’m at least thinking we have that shot.
*** For the Winter season(of course the snow season runs into early April)...but for the three months of Winter...thinking snowfall will be below average ...13 inches or less…(Average is 16-17 inches).
Let’s not lose hope snow-bunnies.
.
Things to look for in February:
.
***red flower buds of the silver maple swell with the first warm spell
***chickadees begin to sing--the first bird song of the year
***look for robins returning in large flocks
.
Enjoy the Winter season...some love it...some hate it, but you have to admit the weather is always fun and interesting in the middle of the nation...So let’s enjoy it. My Spring forecast will be out in mid to late February… seems like a long, long way off right now…it is! Time now for any questions or comments...would love to hear from you.