As we head into the 2024-2025 NBA season, the race for the Sixth Man of the Year award tipped off. With intriguing movement in the betting market, particularly surrounding former MVP Russell Westbrook, and some dark horse candidates like Keldon Johnson, there are plenty of opportunities to find value. Let’s break down the latest BetMGM data and take a look at some of the best bets for this award.
BetMGM Data: Russell Westbrook Gaining Traction
One of the biggest surprises in the Sixth Man of the Year betting market is the massive surge in support for Denver Nuggets guard Russell Westbrook. He opened at +6600 but has seen his odds shorten dramatically to +1800, and for good reason. Westbrook leads the market with 23.4% of the money wagered and 13.7% of the tickets.
Westbrook’s transition to a bench role with the Nuggets could be the perfect fit for a team looking to defend its title. His ability to lead the second unit and inject energy into the game while keeping the pace high makes him a dangerous candidate for this award. While Westbrook’s style has often been criticized, in the sixth-man role he has the chance to focus on his strengths—pushing the tempo, playmaking, and attacking the basket. Plus, we’ve seen him put up numbers with ease across the points, rebounds and assist categories.
Odds Leader: Malik Monk (+600)
Sacramento Kings guard Malik Monk, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, has emerged as the early favorite to repeat. Monk’s odds opened at +450 but have drifted slightly to +600, with 4.5% of tickets and 2.0% of the handle placed on him.
Monk had an outstanding 2023-2024 season, helping guide the Kings to a strong playoff performance while providing a spark off the bench. As Sacramento continues to be a contender in the Western Conference, Monk should remain a major contributor. However, the repeat performance from Monk may not be as certain as his odds suggest, as it’s hard to win this award two years in a row, and there’s plenty of competition rising in the field.
Best Bet: Keldon Johnson (+6000)
The real value in this market lies with San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson, who is currently priced at +6000. Johnson isn’t getting much attention from the betting public with just 2.2% of tickets and 0.6% of the handle, but I think he’s a fantastic dark horse bet.
Here’s why: Johnson is likely to be the first man off the bench for the Spurs this season. During the preseason, San Antonio has started Victor Wembanyama, Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes, Jeremy Sochan, and Julian Champagnie. Once Devin Vassell returns from injury, I expect Champagnie to move to the second unit, leaving Johnson as the sixth man. He’ll be playing alongside Tre Jones, Stephon Castle, Zach Collins, Blake Wesley, and Malaki Branham on the Spurs’ second unit.
This is a crucial role for Johnson because he’ll pick up extra usage when Wembanyama sits, which will be extremely important for San Antonio’s success. As a versatile forward who can score at all three levels, Johnson has proven himself capable of carrying a significant offensive load. Last season, he started 27 of 69 games and averaged 15.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in 29.5 minutes. In the 2022-2023 season, when he played as a starter for most of the year, he put up a career-high 22.0 points in 32.7 minutes per game, proving he can be a high-volume scorer.
Johnson shot 34.6% from three last season and improved his efficiency after the All-Star break, especially from beyond the arc. In the preseason, he looks slimmer, more agile, and focused on both ends of the floor. With the Spurs expected to take a leap forward this year—especially with Chris Paul facilitating the offense and another season of growth from Wembanyama—Johnson could emerge as the second-highest scorer on the team. If San Antonio pushes for a playoff spot, Johnson’s candidacy for Sixth Man of the Year will gain momentum.
At +6000, this is a clear mispricing. His implied odds of 1.64% don’t reflect his true potential, and this number is likely to drop quickly once the regular season begins. Now is the perfect time to take advantage of this price.
Final Thoughts: Best Bets for 2024-2025 Sixth Man of the Year
While Russell Westbrook and Malik Monk are grabbing headlines and attention in the betting market, my pick for the best value is Keldon Johnson at +6000. He’s flying under the radar, but his role with the Spurs, combined with his proven ability to score at a high level, makes him an excellent bet to win the award.
Westbrook’s surge in betting support is notable, but it remains to be seen how well he’ll fit into the sixth-man role over the course of the season. Monk is the favorite, but history shows that back-to-back wins for this award are rare. Keep an eye on Johnson, as his odds are likely to shorten once the season starts and his contributions to the Spurs become more apparent.
This is the perfect time to lock in value before the season begins!
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