The 2024 WNBA Finals are set, with the No. 1 New York Liberty taking on the No. 2 Minnesota Lynx in a best-of-five series. The Liberty advanced after defeating the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in four games, while the Lynx needed five games to get past the Connecticut Sun.
New York is the heavy favorite at -275 to win the title for the first time in franchise history, while Minnesota stands at +220 to claim its fifth championship.
New York Liberty
The Liberty finished the regular season with one of the best records in the league at 32-8. They are led by former MVP’s Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, along with All-Star Sabrina Ionescu.
New York topped the league in offensive rating (107.0) and net rating (11.7) while ranking third in defensive rating (95.3) during the regular season. They also had the highest marks in 3-point attempts (29.0) and makes (10.1) per game. The Liberty got hot from beyond the arc in the semifinals against the Aces, shooting over 40% in three of the four games, which was a huge factor in their success against the defending champs. If New York continues shooting that well from deep, they will be well on their way to hoisting their first banner.
Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx were not in the championship conversation when the season started but quickly became one of the league’s top teams. They have a mix of veteran and young players, creating a balanced attack led by forward Napheesa Collier.
Minnesota’s defense has been a driving force behind its success all season, ranking second in the league in defensive rating (94.8) and holding teams to just 75.6 points per game. The Lynx play at an extremely slow pace, effectively forcing opponents to adapt to their style.
Minnesota dominated the Liberty during the regular season, winning three of their four meetings by an average of 10.3 points, including the Commissioner’s Cup. Bridget Carleton led the Lynx in scoring in two of those four games, knocking down a combined 11 threes.
Best Bet
There isn’t much value in betting on the Liberty at -275, so the only way I would consider betting a series price is on the Lynx at +220. However, if you believe Minnesota will win, it might be worth taking a shot on Collier to win MVP at +240. For the Lynx to defeat New York, Collier will need to demonstrate why she is the star of this team. Backing her for MVP offers slightly more value than betting on Minnesota outright.
If you prefer the Liberty to win, I recommend considering them to win the series 3-1 at +310 or 3-2 at +300. New York is loaded with talent and has experience in this situation, having lost to the Aces in last year’s Finals, so they know what it takes to win. That said, Minnesota is too strong a team to be swept, which is why those two outcomes make the most sense.
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