The Major League Baseball season is entering its final stages, as October is quickly approaching and the playoffs will be here before we know it. This is a very interesting time to take a look at the Wild Card races for both the American League and National League, and see if there are any bets that are worth making on a team that is maybe out of it now, but could sneak in at the last minute.
In the American League, the Baltimore Orioles are solidly in the first Wild Card slot, with a decent chance of winning their division still. The Kansas City Royals occupy the second spot, 2.5 games ahead of the final Wild Card selection, which is owned by the Minnesota Twins as I write this article.
Much can change in the next month, however, so it is a good time to look at who is behind Minnesota to make a run and claim a spot. The four teams trailing them are Detroit, Seattle, Boston, and Tampa Bay, of the teams with a reasonable chance to catch up. The Tigers are 3.5 games back, as are the Mariners, while the Red Sox are 4.0 games back and the Rays 5.0 games.
Taking a look at the teams, I want to eliminate the Rays and Red Sox almost right away. Tampa Bay owns a -55 run differential, the worst of the four teams, and also has the fifth-toughest schedule remaining with series against Philadelphia, Cleveland, Detroit, Boston, and Toronto due up. None of those teams are cupcake wins. Boston has a modest -6 run differential, with the sixth-toughest remaining schedule, playing the Yankees, Baltimore, Minnesota, Toronto, and Tampa Bay to go. Again, no easy teams to be seen there.
That leaves me with Seattle and Detroit. If I like run differential, I’d pick the Mariners who have the best by a good margin at +46, compared to the Tigers at +22. However, Detroit also has a far easier remaining schedule. Seattle has the 13th-toughest remaining schedule, with battles against the Yankees, Padres, Astros, Athletics, and Rangers due up. Only the A’s really represent a likely series win or sweep.
Meanwhile, Detroit has the 28th-toughest remaining schedule out of 30 teams. They still have to play Baltimore and Kansas City, but also layups against the White Sox and Rockies, as well a critical series against the Rays.
Taking a look at the odds at BetMGM, Seattle is +700 to make the playoffs, while Boston is +1100, Detroit +1300, and Tampa at +2200. The best value play in my opinion is Detroit, with an easy schedule and +22 run differential at 13/1. Seattle is the best team of the four, and that reflects in their 7/1 odds to catch up.
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