The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars meet in a compelling Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup, and we’ve identified a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) pick that offers great value. Buffalo comes into the game after extra rest, having last played on Thursday night. Historically, the Bills have performed well in this spot, and Josh Allen has a strong against-the-spread (ATS) record early in the season. Our SGP combines two key bets: 1H Under 23 Points and Bills -5.5 at +270 odds at BetMGM. Here's why these picks stand out.
1H Under 23 Points & Bills -5.5 (+270, BetMGM)
The first half under has been a profitable trend since the start of last season, going 14-7-1 across various matchups. For this specific game, I like the 1H under 23 points due to the potential for a slower start as both teams ease into the flow of the game. Buffalo’s defense remains stout, and Jacksonville has struggled to find offensive rhythm early in games, which makes this a strong leg of the parlay.
In addition to the first-half under, the Bills enter this game with a ton of rest. After playing on Thursday night in Week 2, they had extra time to prepare and heal for a Monday night game, which should give them an edge. This scenario has only occurred twice during the first three weeks of the regular season over the last nine years: the 2023 Eagles beat the Buccaneers 25-11, and the 2022 Bills blew out the Titans 41-7. The extra rest clearly benefits teams in this spot.
Another factor favoring the Bills is Josh Allen’s success against the spread early in the season. In his first four games of the year, Allen is an impressive 16-9 ATS. This contrasts sharply with his record later in the season, where he’s just 37-38-5 ATS from Week 5 onward when opposing teams have been able to seemingly adjust. Allen’s early-season dominance makes Buffalo a solid play at -5.5, especially considering his tendency to win by large margins. In fact, 50 of Allen’s 70 career NFL wins have come by seven points or more, so covering the spread in this contest is well within reach.
With extra rest, Josh Allen’s early-season ATS success, and a first-half under trend in play, this SGP of 1H Under 23 Points and Bills -5.5 offers strong value at +270 odds. Buffalo’s ability to dominate early in the season, coupled with their favorable rest advantage, makes this a well-rounded bet heading into Monday night’s game. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to combine two key trends into one high-value parlay.
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