When it comes to the biggest deep threat targets in the NFL today, the first name that everyone will think of is Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, who has been this generation's speed demon that can take the top off of a defense for a huge score down the field. You might also think of Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, who just scored a 97-yard touchdown this past weekend against the San Francisco 49ers.
What would you say if I told you that neither one of them has been the biggest deep threat in the NFL since the start of the 2023 season?
According to Around the NFL, Saints WR Rashid Shaheed's 70-yard TD this past weekend was his seventh reception over 50 yards of air distance since the start of 2023, which is the most in NFL over that span. Indeed, no one has been a bigger threat down the field than Shaheed.
Knowing this stat and how great Shaheed has been at catching long balls, it is always worth a wager betting over his longest reception prop every weekend. He is often overlooked in the market simply because he is not some big name guy like Hill or Jefferson, who get a lot of attention by the sportsbooks when setting their line. Many fans don’t even know who Shaheed is outside of New Orleans, nor what he has been doing for the last year.
Because of this, and the overall obscurity of the “longest reception” prop as compared to receiving yards and touchdowns, you can sometimes find mispriced lines that don’t reflect the true value for the prop. Shaheed’s line was set at just 18.5 this past weekend for his longest reception, which he broke with ease.
In fact, he has covered this line in both of his first two games this season, and even in his last game of the 2023 season against Atlanta. He’s cashed this prop in four of his last five games played, and 17 of his last 27 games going back to October 20, 2022.
Sometimes the best way to bet on player props is in these markets that not many public players will be paying attention to, and it has been extremely profitable for those of us who have taken notice of how many deep balls that Shaheed has been grabbing for the Saints for the last couple years. Remember, for this prop, he just needs to catch one ball that he takes over the yardage line that is set by the books.
With the success and money this prop has brought in, it is worth a wager every week that he plays, and most weeks you have been able to get it at under 20 yards. I have a feeling that won’t last very long, however.
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