The Buffalo Bills will travel to Metlife Stadium tonight to take on the New York Jets in a battle for first place in the AFC East. Yes, that’s right, the winner of this game will be at the top of the division. It certainly doesn't feel like that should be the case, as the Bills have lost two straight games coming into this one, and the Jets just fired their head coach with a chance to take the lead in the division.
As usual for any prime time NFL game, there is going to be a lot of wagers and money being placed on this one, and it is always helpful to know where it is all going. In Week 6, the betting public had their best weekend against the sportsbook since the 1970 merger in the NFL. Public sides (51+% of bets) have cashed at an unreal rate, with road favorites going a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS. The Bills, who are currently a small -1.5 favorite in the market, would mark the best weekend of all time for road favorites if they won and covered.
The betting public is all over Buffalo in this one as a favorite against the Jets, which isn’t shocking at all to see. New York seems like a mess right now, sitting at 2-3 and having just fired their head coach, as mentioned. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has looked like a shell of his former self, throwing three interceptions last weekend against the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off two straight losses, but they still have QB Josh Allen, and the general perception of them is much higher than that of New York.
As of this writing, it is very lopsided action in favor of Buffalo over at BetMGM. John Ewing, who works in Data and PR for BetMGM, says a whopping 80% of bets and 79% of money is on the Bills tonight to cover the spread. Not only that, but Buffalo is also a part of many different moneyline parlays. The sportsbook is going to want the Jets to win and cover this game tonight, there is little question about that. They need it badly too, as they got destroyed this weekend by the public, with all the favorites covering.
On the total, it isn’t quite as lopsided. Ewing says 57% of bets and 65% of money is on the under at 41, so the public is expecting a lower-scoring game. That makes sense with how good the Jets defense has been and how miserable their offense has played, but now that Robert Saleh is gone, it isn’t impossible the defense has to adjust. Plus, Buffalo’s defense has been far from what I would call good.
I’ll very likely be on the Jets in this game, as this is a very good spot for them, and the sportsbooks need a win after getting crushed this weekend. I’m not as quick to bet the total here, as I could see the game going under. If you want updated numbers closer to game time, make sure to check X for all of my best bets.
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