One of the most anticipated games of NFL Week 4 will be the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, two AFC powerhouses that are off to different starts this year. Right now in the market, Baltimore is generally a -2.5 favorite at home in this game, with the total sitting around 46.5 at most places. In my opinion, there is a clear and concise right side to be on in this game, and it may not be the team that you think.
Buffalo comes into this game off a massive blowout 47-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. They are undefeated at 3-0 after the first three weeks of the season, which shouldn’t have surprised anyone. We heard all summer about how their Super Bowl window was closing and that they were due to take a dive and so on. That was the perfect time to take them for a nibble at 17/1 odds, as you knew with the public tickets and money off of them, they would be very good. QB Josh Allen looks like he is the frontrunner for the MVP award, and who knew kicking toxicity to the curb would make them better?
The Ravens are back home, and the last time we saw them here, they blew a double-digit lead to the Las Vegas Raiders to lose in a massive upset. Last week, they managed to pick up their first win of the season against the Dallas Cowboys, but once again they almost blew a massive lead. They were up 28-6 in that game and finished it with a 28-25 victory. The narrative around them choking late is going to have a lot of people wanting to fade them whenever they are a favorite in a game, which I expect many to do here.
To me, there is clearly only one way to bet this game when it comes to the spread or moneyline. I’ll be putting a wager on the Ravens to win this game, which you can get at BetMGM right now for a decent -130 price on the ML. Simply put, the public is going to be backing a red-hot and undefeated Buffalo team here getting points. They will also be loving that plus money you can get on the Bills moneyline to win the game outright. Whenever the majority of tickets and money are on an underdog, you know that the smart move is to take the favorite there.
I also love fading teams the week after they have a big prime time performance. Everyone watches the prime time games, as they are usually the only game on at the time (I know there was a MNF double-header, which is still dumb). People pay more attention to each team when there is less going on at once. The public will see that huge win over a bad Jags team and start to fall in love with the Bills.
A trend to look at here is that Lamar Jackson has been money in this spot historically. He’s 23-7 ATS as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog. In all other spots, he is 23-33 ATS. Take the Ravens here on the moneyline, or at -2.5 if you are feeling a bit more frisky.
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