Thursday Night Football brings an intriguing Week 7 matchup between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints, featuring two rookie quarterbacks, Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler, at the helm. Both signal-callers have shown flashes of their potential, but inconsistency and injury concerns surrounding their supporting casts leave plenty of questions for bettors. In this article, we break down two of the best prop bets for TNF—Bo Nix’s combined passing and rushing yards, and Spencer Rattler’s interception total. With favorable matchups and recent performances to analyze, these props offer strong value heading into the game. Let's dive in!
Broncos QB Bo Nix Over 219.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115, Caesars)
While Nix has not exactly been a prolific passer so far in his rookie season, he’s gotten over this number in passing + rushing yards in four of his last five starts with the lone exception being a rainy weather game against a tough Jets defense. He’s flashed his upside as a runner all season long, going for 25, 35, 47 and 61 rushing yards in separate games and has recorded 206, 216, 216 and 246 passing yards in different contests as well. This Saints defense just allowed 325 passing yards and four passing touchdowns to Baker Mayfield on Sunday, 331 to Patrick Mahomes the week before, 311 to Jalen Hurts in Week 3 and 293 to Dak Prescott in Week 2. I expect Nix to be able to move the ball downfield through the air and with his legs and I think he’ll smash this number.
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Saints QB Spencer Rattler Over 0.5 Interceptions (-128, Caesars)
With Derek Carr likely out again, the Saints will turn to their rookie QB once again in this matchup. Heading into this matchup on a short week, both Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) are out while Alvin Kamara (hand) is banged up and WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. (ankle) is also going to be playing hurt. I expect Kamara and Wilson to play, but Rattler’s weapons will be severely depleted with Olave and Shaheed either both out or limited if they surprisingly suit up. Rattler threw two interceptions in his debut and I expect him to throw at least one against a very talented Broncos defense that ranks T-10th with five interceptions so far.
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Broncos WR Devaughn Vele Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
We got our first glimpse of what wide receiver playing time might be with Josh Reynolds injured and Vele seems to be an obvious beneficiary. Vele played 49% of snaps in Week 1 and led the team in receiving (eight catches on eight targets, 39 yards), followed that up with four straight healthy scratches and was activated last week to play 62% of snaps to lead the team in receiving again (four catches on six targets, 78 yards). Not only that, but his route participation was 76% last week and he will run most of his routes from the slot. Why does that matter? Well, Chris Godwin (125 yards), Juju Smith-Schuster (130 yards), Jalen Tolbert (83 yards) and even tight end Dallas Goedert (170 yards) crushed this New Orleans team out of the slot in their matchups against them. This is a ladder play for me and I think 28.5 is completely mispriced.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions (-135, BetMGM)
Chris Olave (concussion) and Rasheed Shaheed (knee) are ruled out while Derek Carr (oblique) and Taysom Hill (rib) are listed as doubtful. Therefore, this is going to be a very depleted offensive attack and will likely be centered around Kamara. Starting guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) will also be out which could negatively impact Kamara’s rushing upside, but I think it’s going to be reasonable to assume that the running back will see over the eight targets he attracted from Rattler last time out. He will likely operate as a check-down option and see a low aDOT when running routes, so I’m not going to go over his 35.5-yard receiving total, but I do love his receptions upside in this one
Saints WR Bub Means Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (+105, BetMGM)
When Olave got injured last week, Means saw the biggest uptick in additional snaps and finished with a career-high 71% snap count (50 plays). The rookie from Pitt pulled in five of eight targets for 45 yards and a touchdown and clearly had a connection with Rattler. Now with Olave and Shaheed out, the targets are going to be spread out between Kamara, Means, Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson. Over 33.5 receiving yards for a guy who led Saints WR in snaps, targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns last week sounds like a plan to me!
BetMGM Data Insights: Saints vs. Broncos Props
In the BetMGM NFL highlights for the Broncos-Saints matchup, several player props have garnered significant betting attention. One of the most popular props is Alvin Kamara's over 35.5 receiving yards (-115), with an overwhelming 99% of bets placed on the over. Bo Nix has also attracted considerable action, with bettors backing him to surpass 189.5 passing yards (-135). Other notable player props include Foster Moreau over 8.5 receiving yards (-115) and Troy Franklin over 20.5 receiving yards (-115). Meanwhile, many bettors are taking Kamara to stay under 68.5 rushing yards (-120), showing mixed expectations for his overall performance.
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