After Thursday’s epic Chiefs-Ravens showdown to open the NFL season, fans will only have to wait one day for the second game of the NFL season. The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are set to play Friday night in Brazil, taking the NFL’s International Series to South America for the first time. The Eagles are listed as 2.5-point favorites over the Packers, which is significant.
In the history of the NFL International Series, the favored teams are 33-10-1 straight up and 29-15 against the spread, covering 66% of the time. That’s a good omen for the Eagles, a team that needs a good omen after their disastrous second half last year. Meanwhile, the BetQL model is projecting a 28-23 Philadelphia win, giving the Eagles a 77.12% chance of winning the game. Therefore, taking the Philadelphia moneyline at -130 is a five-star pick according to the model.
Obviously, those trends don’t do much to negate the skepticism surrounding the Eagles after losing five of their last six games to end the 2023 regular season. There was also that embarrassing 32-9 playoff loss against the Bucs. But the new season gives the Eagles a chance for a fresh start.
This is still largely the same team that started last season 10-1. Jalen Hurts is still a two-time Pro Bowler who has one of the best wide receiver tandems in football at his disposal. He also has Saquon Barkley lurking in the backfield, and at least for Week 1, there is no reason to be concerned about Barkley’s injury-riddled past.
On the other side, there are high hopes in Green Bay heading into the new season. That is largely a consequence of the Packers beating the Panthers, Vikings, and Bears in consecutive weeks to close out the 2023 regular season before beating the Cowboys in the playoffs. There’s no reason to value Green Bay’s late-season success any more than Philadelphia’s sudden decline at the end of last season.
Compared to the Eagles, the Packers still have a less established quarterback. Green Bay’s contingent of wide receivers also lacks experience and high-end talent compared to A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith with the Eagles. Green Bay is also leaning on Josh Jacobs as the team’s primary ball carrier after he managed just 3.5 yards per carry last season.
Ultimately, Green Bay’s hype coming into the 2024 season is all about projection. The assumption is that Jordan Love and his young wide receivers can continue to build off of their late-season success in 2023.
However, the Eagles have the better quarterback and more dynamic playmakers, giving them every chance to start fresh and reclaim the success they had early in 2023 rather than reverting back to the team that crashed and burned late last season. With the NFL’s International Series trends and the BetQL model behind them, the Eagles are a safe pick to win by at least a field goal on Friday.
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