As we head into another exciting day of sports action, our experts have highlighted their top picks for September 4. From MLB prop bets to WNBA point totals, these selections offer a variety of value plays to consider. Whether you're betting on Bobby Miller's struggles against the Angels or counting on Kelsey Mitchell to continue her scoring surge, these expert insights can help guide your wagering decisions.
Dan Karpuc: Bobby Miller Over 2.5 Earned Runs vs. Angels (+110, Caesars)
The Angels may stink, but Dodgers SP Bobby Miller (2-3, 7.25 ERA) has been atrocious this season. He’s allowed three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts (29 ER in 33 IP in that span) and his 6.43 season-long FIP further proves how terrible he’s been on the mound. Until he proves otherwise, I’m going to keep betting the over, especially at plus-money.
Lucy Burdge: Mookie Betts O 1.5 Total Bases vs. Angels (-110, BetMGM)
Betts has gone over this in his last two games and in three of his last four games with two home runs in those last four games. He also has nine hits in his last seven games. Against Griffin Canning, he is batting .400 with a double and a home run. And Canning comes into this game with an ERA over five, so I think Betts can go over this tonight.
Matt Horner: Brewers ML vs. Cardinals (-110, BetMGM)
RHP Sonny Gray is on the hill for St. Louis tonight on the road, and he is a prime positive regression candidate. He owns a 3.96 ERA, but a 3.92 xERA and 2.85 xFIP, so he has been much better than his actual numbers would suggest. He owns a 10.91 K/9 rate, which is exceptional, and also doesn’t walk many batters at all with a 2.19 BB/9 rate. He’s been somewhat unlucky with a .295 BABIP and 67.8% strand rate, which is where that positive regression will come from.
On the other side, RHP Colin Rea will be starting for Milwaukee. He’s the exact opposite, a huge regression candidate going forward. He owns a 3.70 ERA, but a 4.95 xERA and 4.33 xFIP, so he is due to get smacked around soon. He has a low .261 BABIP and high 79.6% strand rate, and all the luck that Gray is missing has gone to him. He doesn’t walk many batters, with just a 2.22 BB/9, but also doesn’t strike many out either (7.27 K/9). He allows massive hard contact with a 1.48 HR/9 rate as well, which is never good when you have only a 39.5% ground ball rate.
I am not going to sit here and say that Rea is the better starter, because in reality, Gray is substantially better at nearly everything. However, I feel Milwaukee has the advantage everywhere else. The Brewers rank 8th in xFIP in their bullpen, whereas the Cardinals are 21st in that category. Not only do they have a worse bullpen, but they likely won’t have many of their better arms tonight. St. Louis deployed Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez, and closer Ryan Helsley for multiple innings yesterday, and used Andrew Kitterede for the third time in four days. I expect a depleted bullpen.
I also like the Brewers offense and defense more than the Cardinals position group. While Milwaukee continues to have success against right-handed pitching (10th), St. Louis has dropped since the All-Star break down to 15th in wRC+. On defense, the Brewers are 3rd in Defensive Runs Saved while the Cards are 8th. I’ll take Milwaukee here in a toss up.
Kate Constable: Kelsey Mitchell Over 21.5 points (-128, FanDuel)
The Fever clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2016 thanks to a 6-1 record since the All-Star break. Mitchell has been one of Indiana’s top performers over that span, scoring at least 20 points in each game. She’s averaging 26.7 points per game over her last seven games, which is second in the league only to A’ja Wilson. The Fever and Sparks play at the fourth and fifth fastest paces respectively, so I expect this to be an up-tempo game with plenty of points being scored. Mitchell will certainly be one of the main beneficiaries, so grab her to go over 21.5 points tonight.