The LA Clippers' 2024 season is off to a rocky start, as Kawhi Leonard will be sidelined indefinitely due to inflammation in his right knee, a major blow for a team that’s struggled to find stability over the past few seasons. Per ESPN, head coach Ty Lue confirmed that the two-time NBA Finals MVP will need a cautious and prolonged rehab process with no clear timeline for his return.
This puts the Clippers in a difficult spot as they navigate a stacked Western Conference without their superstar. With Leonard out of the lineup, it’s worth considering the Clippers' outlook this season—and betting on them to miss the playoffs or finish under 35.5 wins could prove to be a profitable move.
Clippers' Playoff Odds Plummet
Without Kawhi Leonard on the court, the Clippers' odds of reaching the playoffs have dropped significantly, with sportsbooks listing them between -325 and -500 to miss the postseason. The Clippers were already dealing with the uncertainty of Leonard’s health going into the season, but now the indefinite nature of his absence almost guarantees a tough road ahead. The overall talent on the roster feels mismatched for the challenges of the West with aging veteran James Harden as the team’s go-to scorer and playmaker.
The odds are reflecting the reality: this version of the Clippers is not built to compete for a top-eight seed in a conference packed with title contenders like the Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns and others.
Betting on the Clippers' Win Total: Under 35.5
Another betting angle that stands out is the Clippers’ regular-season win total. The line is set at 35.5 wins, but with Leonard’s injury and the team’s overall depth issues, taking the under seems like the smarter play.
Leonard’s absence leaves a huge hole on both ends of the floor. While Ty Lue is a capable coach who has earned respect across the league, the Clippers' starting lineup without Leonard doesn’t inspire much confidence. A probable starting five of James Harden, Norman Powell, Terance Mann, Derrick Jones Jr., and Ivica Zubac is serviceable but not particularly imposing in a highly competitive Western Conference.
The second unit, consisting of Kevin Porter Jr., Kris Dunn, Amir Coffey, Nicolas Batum, and Mo Bamba, lacks the firepower to compete consistently against deeper and more talented squads.
With Leonard’s injury likely sidelining him for a significant portion of the season, the Clippers will struggle to stay afloat. The team has seen its share of bad luck with injuries in recent seasons, and without Leonard, their chances of a midseason turnaround look grim.
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A New Arena, Same Old Clippers Struggles
The Clippers will be debuting their new home, the Intuit Dome, this season, but the excitement of a fresh start might not be enough to offset the challenges the team is facing. While playing in a new arena can boost fan engagement and give a team an emotional lift, it doesn't magically fix roster deficiencies or health issues.
The timing of this is particularly unfortunate, as Clippers fans deserved more heading into the season. However, given their current trajectory, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Clippers considered trading away assets midseason to tank for a better chance at a high draft pick in 2025. With top prospects like Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey leading a stacked class, shifting focus toward the future could become a realistic plan.
Final Thoughts
Betting on the Clippers to miss the playoffs and finish under 35.5 wins feels like a smart approach given the team’s current situation. Leonard’s absence removes any realistic hope of competing at a high level, and the team’s depth issues will be further exposed as they navigate the challenges of a loaded Western Conference.
While it may be disappointing for Clippers fans to brace for another underwhelming season, betting on the team to underperform could be one of the more valuable plays for the NBA season ahead. I’m also going to be attacking this game by game early in the season and I expect Los Angeles to be one of the worst teams in the NBA without Leonard on the court.
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