When it comes to betting on Joel Embiid in the futures market, one of the biggest factors you need to consider is his load management. Embiid is undeniably one of the most dominant players in the NBA, but his history of injuries means the Philadelphia 76ers often rest him during the regular season to ensure he’s healthy for the playoffs.
He recently hinted that the team would rest him even more than usual this year to ensure that he’ll be ready for the playoffs, since winning a championship is his ultimate goal.
The NBA doesn’t like load management because it means its biggest stars aren’t on the floor on a nightly basis. It’s implemented several rules over the last few years to try and combat it, one of which states that players need to participate in at least 65 games in order to be eligible for postseason awards.
This has a direct effect on Embiid's MVP odds, which currently sit at +900 on BetMGM, behind Luka Dončić (+350), Nikola Jokić (+450), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+450).
Embiid’s stats have certainly been MVP-worthy over the last few years. He won his first MVP award in 2022-2023 after averaging 33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.7 blocks per game. However, he only played in 66 games that year, just barely making himself eligible for the award.
His 2023-2024 stats were even more impressive with 34.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.7 blocks per game. If Embiid had stayed healthy throughout the season, there would have been a very strong case for him to take home the award for the second straight season. To the surprise of no one, that wasn’t the case because he only played in 39 regular season games.
Historically, MVP winners play around 70-75 games, and Embiid has yet to hit that mark in any season throughout his career. In his three MVP-winning seasons, Nikola Jokić played 72, 74 and 79 games. Those are numbers that Embiid will never be able to replicate because of his load management requirements. So, while he’s going to be in the conversation each year because of his talent, his propensity to miss games brings a ton of added risk when it comes to betting on him.
Paul George joining the Sixers in the offseason could also hinder Embiid’s chances of bringing home an individual award. For one, having an All-Star like George on the floor will allow Philadelphia to be even more conservative with Embiid’s playing time because George can take over for some of his production. There is also the chance that Geroge takes away from some of Embiid’s production when they are both on the floor together. If that’s the case, Embiid’s numbers might not be MVP-worthy to begin with.
While Embiid’s +900 odds might seem enticing given his consistent place in award conversations, the variables of load management, team dynamics, and health make him a risky futures bet. There’s a lot working against Embiid when it comes to betting on him for season-long awards, which is why you won’t find me putting my money on any of his futures.
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
