The 2024 NFL season is upon us, and Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has emerged as a potential game-changer. After a rocky start in 2023, Love made a significant adjustment halfway through the season that turned the tide for the Packers—and it’s something NFL defenses need to be wary of.
According to Next Gen Stats, Love generated a league-high +59.6 expected points added (EPA) when throwing in rhythm (2.5-4 seconds) over the second half of the 2023 season. The numbers tell the story: in Weeks 1-8, Love struggled with just four touchdown passes against seven interceptions. However, from Weeks 9-18, he flipped the script with 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions. This stark improvement in his in-rhythm throws shows that Love has not only adapted to the speed of the NFL but also fine-tuned his decision-making and mechanics.
This midseason transformation has set the stage for what could be a breakout year for Love in 2024. The betting markets reflect this optimism—Love is currently listed at +1400 to win MVP, +8000 to win Offensive Player of the Year, +1500 to lead the NFL in passing yards, and +1500 to have the most passing touchdowns. His season-long totals are equally intriguing, with sportsbooks setting his passing yardage prop at 3,850.5 and his touchdown prop at 27.5 at BetMGM.
Part of what makes Love’s potential leap so compelling is the talent surrounding him. The Packers have a strong group of wide receivers led by Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Tight end Luke Musgrove adds another dynamic target in the passing game. Additionally, with a strong rushing attack featuring Josh Jacobs, Green Bay’s offense should have a well-rounded approach that sets up plenty of play-action opportunities for Love to exploit.
Looking ahead to Week 1, the Packers have a golden opportunity to start hot against the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil on Friday. The Eagles’ defense, which allowed 35 passing touchdowns last season (second-most in the NFL) and gave up 4,551 passing yards (fourth-most), could be vulnerable to Love’s newfound rhythm and precision. Green Bay enters the game as a +2.5 underdog with an over/under set at 49 points—a matchup that could turn into a shootout if Love continues where he left off in 2023.
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As the season kicks off, all eyes will be on Jordan Love. If he can sustain the improvement he showed in the latter half of last season, the Packers could quickly become one of the league’s most dangerous teams, and Love could find himself in the thick of the MVP conversation.
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