The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will meet at Citizens Bank Park this weekend for a crucial series as both look to make a move in the National League East. Perhaps to surprise of some, though, neither team's ace will enter the weekend as the odds-on favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award.
Jacob deGrom once seemed on pace to win both the NL Cy Young Award and MVP, but injuries have derailed what may have otherwise been one of the great seasons in MLB history. Already a two-time NL Cy Young Award winner, deGrom has a minuscule 1.08 ERA and 1.23 FIP in 92 innings, but he's made just 15 starts. The 33-year-old still has a 4.9 fWAR, which is tied for the second-best mark among all pitchers in baseball. Currently shut down with inflammation in his right elbow, it's not clear when deGrom will next pitch, which is why six pitchers in the National League now have better odds to win the award than his +1800 mark.
Wheeler -- deGrom's former teammate in Queens -- tops all qualified pitchers in innings pitched (147) and FIP (2.49). He also has a 5.1 fWAR, the best mark among pitchers in baseball. In his second season with the Phillies, Wheeler played in the All-Star Game for the first time, and he's seemingly at the forefront of the National League Cy Young Award race. But not the tippy-top, apparently.
While Wheeler tops Milwaukee Brewers teammates Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes -- along with San Francisco's Kevin Gausman -- his +300 odds for the NL Cy Young are only the second best.
Much has been made of the collective Cy Young Award victories between new teammates Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, but their Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Walker Buehler is currently the odds-on favorite at +275, per DraftKings.
Buehler, 27, is second in innings to Wheeler with 141 2/3 innings. In many senses, though, a Cy Young race between Buehler and Wheeler would pit more traditional voters against more analytically-inclined ones. Buehler is on the better team, his 11-2 record is more pleasing to the eye than Wheeler's 9-6 mark and his 2.16 ERA is best among all National League starters. Wheeler's ERA is 41 points higher than Buehler's, but Wheeler comfortably tops Buehler in FIP (64 points lower), expected FIP (91 points lower) and expected ERA (40 points lower) -- marks that aim to take luck and/or factors that the pitcher can't control out of the equation.
Because of injuries, deGrom's chances to win the NL Cy Young Award are likely dashed. Wheeler, however, has a chance to become the favorite for the award, and a strong start against deGrom's Mets on Sunday would go a long way in helping his candidacy.
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