With key injuries and lineup changes shaking up the NBA landscape, certain player props stand out as strong betting opportunities. Nikola Jokic continues to put up historic stat lines, Duncan Robinson is stepping up in Jimmy Butler’s absence and Daniel Gafford has a favorable matchup against a weak Pelicans frontcourt. Let’s dive into the top player prop bets for Wednesday’s slate.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic Over 50.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Knicks (-115, DraftKings)
With six triple-doubles in his last seven games, Jokic has gone over this 50.5 points + rebounds + assists mark in 26 of 40 starts this season (65% hit rate). Averaging 30.0 points (3rd in NBA), 13.1 rebounds (3rd in NBA) and 10.2 assists (2nd in NBA) for a ridiculous 53.3 points + rebounds + assists per game, Jokic has been unstoppable regardless of the matchup. The Knicks have progressed on the offensive end, but regressed defensively this season, so I am not as concerned about facing Thibs’ squad as I would have been last season.
Heat SG Duncan Robinson Over 12.5 Points vs. Cavaliers (-120, DraftKings)
With Jimmy Butler suspended indefinitely, Robinson is going to have to step up and be a source of points for the Heat. He’s gone over this mark in four of his five games (21, 22, 12, 15 and 15) and has played a boatload of minutes as well, including a season-high 45 in a double-overtime win over the Magic on Monday. In his first and only meeting against the Cavs back in December, Robinson dropped 23 points on 7-for-11 shooting (4-for-6 from three) in 28 minutes and Cleveland is dealing with some key injuries in their rotation, which will likely impact their cohesiveness on the defensive end. All Robinson needs is a sliver of space on the perimeter and he can make you pay and I like the idea of him playing alongside Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware, all of whom will attract attention from the opposing defense.
Mavericks C Daniel Gafford Double-Double vs. Pelicans (-130, DraftKings)
Gafford’s points prop is up at 16.5 and his rebounding prop is at 10.5, so I’d much rather target his double-double prop at -130. The Pelicans have been crushed by opposing centers all season long and with Derek Lively II out, Gafford has taken on a more prominent role at the five, recording double-doubles in three of his last five starts. New Orleans has allowed 24.24 points (6th-most) and 17.4 rebounds (most) to opposing centers this season and over his last five starts, Gafford has averaged 22.2 rebounding chances per game (4th in the entire NBA), which highlights his upside on the glass. Ranking 4th in field goal percentage (69.5%), he finishes at the rim with the best of them and should benefit from Kyrie Irving’s playmaking skills now that he’s back in the lineup. All we need is 10 and 10 and I think this is one of the best bets on this slate.
Wizards C Jonas Valanciunas Double-Double vs. Raptors (-115, BetRivers)
With Alexandre Sarr ruled out, Valanciunas will start and should see enough minutes to get the job done against his old team in Toronto. In four games with Sarr out this year, he’s posted these stats: 20 points and 12 rebounds against the Nuggets, 20 points and 14 rebounds against the Grizzlies, 12 points and 16 rebounds against the Thunder and 14 points and 14 rebounds against the Sixers. This is an auto-bet for me.
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