Looking to dominate your NFL player prop bets this season? You've come to the right place! After an impressive 2023 season where I went +66.2 units, I'm back with even more insights and strategies for 2024. I'll be sharing my top NFL player prop picks all season long and keeping a detailed, transparent record of every single bet. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, follow along to gain an edge and boost your bankroll.
Scroll down to see my favorite Week 1 player prop options.
Cardinals RB James Conner Over 64.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Bills (-110, BetRivers)
Cardinals OC Drew Petzing has been very public about the fact that Conner is the guy in this backfield, even referring to him as the “bellcow”, which is music to my ears. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 17.1 touches per game and per Joe Orrico of Fantasy Pros, Conner was dominant after returning from injury last season, ranking 6th among all running backs in Broken Tackle Rate (14.3%), 4th in Evasion Rate (22%) and 1st in Yards After Contact (3.7). I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cardinals beat the Bills outright on the road and with Kyler Murray back healthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. bolstering the wide receiving room, Conner is going to be heavily utilized both as a runner and a pass-catcher in this offense. I love the potential here and expect him to soar over this number since it’s rushing plus receiving yards. Buffalo’s run defense was bad last season and I don’t expect it to be any better this year. This is my favorite play of the entire week by a considerable margin.
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Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards vs. Steelers (-115, Caesars)
Arthur Smith may be gone from Atlanta, but he will still be at this game, on the opposing sidelines as the Steelers OC. Luckily, he will be nowhere near Robinson, who he famously stripped of carries and touches in favor of the more efficient Tyler Allgeier last year. Last year, he ranked towards the top of most positional advanced statistics and that was when teams expected him to run the football due to horrendous quarterback play. With Kirk Cousins under center, Atlanta is going to have an All-Pro throwing the football, which should only open things up for Robinson on the ground. With proven big-play ability, he has the upside to rip off gigantic chunks of yards every time he touches the pigskin and I expect him to show that ability off and make a huge statement in Week 1. Pittsburgh’s defense is gritty per usual, but you have to think he’ll be running with a little extra umph with his former head coach looking on in road colors.
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Giants QB Daniel Jones Over 212.5 Passing Yards vs. Vikings (-114, FanDuel)
First off, I’m serious. Jones is my favorite quarterback in Week 1. You might be wondering why. Well, this matchup against what should be a horrendous Vikings secondary and defense makes him stand out. Here’s why: per Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points, Minnesota blitzed over 50% of the time (most in the NFL) last season, but ranked bottom-six in pressure rate. Back in 2022 (Jones’ last full season), the Giants QB ranked 27th in Yards Per Attempt (YPA) and 14th in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) when he wasn’t blitzed, but 14th in YPA and 3rd in CPOE when blitzed. There’s no reason to assume that the Vikings will have a more formidable pass-rush despite their aggression this season and with rookie wideout Malik Nabers as his most prized new weapon and guys like Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton with another offseason of development behind them, I really like Jones’ upside. Also keep in mind that Saquon Barkley is now gone, so HC (and now offensive play-caller) Brian Daboll might more inclined to throw the football in important situations. Overall, all we need is 213 passing yards and I think he’s going to soar over that mark.
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Raiders RB Zamir White Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Chargers (-125, BetMGM)
Raiders HC Antonio Pierce was pretty clear about White’s workload when speaking to a team reporter heading into Week 1, per The Coachspeak Index. “He's much bigger and he’s still explosive, he’s still in that 4.4 range. When he’s going downhill, it’s gonna hurt. You really wanna see Zamir from carry 15 to 20, 25. That’s when it’s gonna be like, okay, here we go,” the coach explained. That sounds a lot like he’s going to get over 14.5 rushing attempts, doesn’t it? Of course coach speak should always be taken with a grain of salt, but White did get 20-plus touches over the last four games of last season and holds a substantial depth chart advantage over Alexander Mattison, Dylan Laube and Ameer Abdullah, who are the guys that could steal carries from him. I expect the Raiders to attempt to establish the run with Gardner Minshew under center and White should be the main recipient of those carries.
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Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs Over 19.5 Receiving Yards vs. Rams (-114, FanDuel)
Per Al Karsten of Pride of Detroit, these are the guys that the Rams are going to use at linebacker against the Lions in Week 1: Omar Speights (UDFA rookie), Christian Rozeboom (2023 18.9% Missed Tackle Rate - 89th out of 95 LB’s), Jake Hummel (2022 UDFA with 45 career snaps) and Troy Reeder (2023 38.7 PFF Coverage Grade - 90th of 95 LB’s). In other words, nobody is going to be able to cover Gibbs when he slips out of the backfield to catch passes. He caught four passes for 43 yards against Los Angeles in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and got over this 19.5 number 10 times last season overall. This is an absolute no-brainer and he can realistically get over this number with one catch. Love it.
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Ravens WR Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions (-140) & Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Flowers had a strong rookie season, catching 77 passes and showing potential for even more in his second year. He’s expected to be a focal point in the Baltimore offense, especially with the departure of Odell Beckham Jr. and no major additions to the receiving corps, making him the clear top receiver. Flowers has already shown strong chemistry with Lamar Jackson, who had his best passing season last year. Flowers averaged 4.8 catches per game last season and exceeded 4.5 receptions in 10 out of 18 games, including playoffs, making this a solid bet.
His increased role and the likelihood of more targets further boost the chances of him hitting this mark consistently and I expect him to be heavily featured in Baltimore’s gameplan. If the Ravens trail in this game, which I expect them to do, Flowers should be the prime target for Jackson in a pass-heavy game script and the presence of a healthy Mark Andrews and threat of Derrick Henry in the backfield should give him room to operate since defenses won’t be able to double him or devote an overwhelming amount of attention on him.
Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110)
This is an incredible value due to Worthy’s big-play potential and the ideal offensive environment he's entering with the Kansas City Chiefs. Worthy isn't just a speedster who broke the all-time 40-yard dash record at the Combine; he's a well-rounded receiver with a proven ability to earn targets and make plays downfield. (He proved that at Texas.) With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, known for his ability to extend plays and deliver deep throws, Worthy is in a prime position to be a downfield threat.
The Chiefs have bolstered their receiving corps, addressing last season's struggles with downfield passing by drafting Worthy and adding Marquise Brown. With defenses focusing on established stars like Travis Kelce and emerging talent Rashee Rice in the slot, Worthy will have plenty of opportunities to stretch the field. The combination of Andy Reid’s creative play-calling, Mahomes’ ability to flick the ball downfield, and Worthy's speed makes this a solid bet for him to break off a long reception.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Not only will Kelce be playing with a chip on his shoulder due to the rumors swirling around his breakup with Taylor Swift, but he’s crushed the Ravens throughout his career. In the AFC Championship Game, he caught 11 of 11 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown and has recorded 116, 109, 87, 89, 77 and 73 receiving yards in six career matchups against Baltimore. Averaging 7.3 catches on 8.3 targets for 91.8 yards in those games, this was the first prop I circled due to the obvious value. With newcomer Hollywood Brown out, Kelce and Rashee Rice should be Patrick Mahomes’ top targets and if the Ravens try to erase Kansas City’s run game like Roquan Smith hinted, Kelce could realistically be in store for 12-to-15 targets. That should be more than enough for him to easily go over this number.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs. Packers
This is a solid choice given Barkley’s potential role in the Eagles' offense and his ability to exploit matchups in the passing game. With Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator, Barkley is likely to be utilized similarly to how Moore used Austin Ekeler in 2023, who had 51 receptions on 74 targets in 14 games. Barkley has already proven he can be a major factor in the passing game, having been targeted as high as 121 times in a single season (that was back in 2018 as a rookie).
Barkley will benefit from lining up behind an elite offensive line, allowing him to take screen passes or short receptions and easily gain the necessary yardage. While Jalen Hurts hasn’t traditionally favored check-downs, the presence of star receivers A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert will stretch defenses, giving Barkley more space to operate when he does catch the ball. The Eagles' offense could feature designed plays specifically for Barkley, making it very likely he surpasses 15.5 receiving yards in this matchup. While both Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley could factor into Philadelphia’s gameplan, I’d expect Barkley to receive the lion’s share of snaps and opportunities out of the backfield, especially in Week 1 against the Packers.
I'm going to stay away from Philly's pass-catchers due to Jalen Hurts' lack of throwing late in games and I also am wary about targeting any Packers since Vic Fangio completely overhauled the Eagles' terrible defense from last season. I'll take a wait-and-see approach there.
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