The race for National League Rookie of the Year has taken a dramatic turn, and all signs now point to Pittsburgh Pirates’ phenom Paul Skenes as the clear frontrunner. Priced at +400 last week, Skenes' odds have skyrocketed to -150 at BetMGM, reflecting a massive shift in confidence from both bettors and bookmakers alike. Not only does Skenes lead in highest ticket percentage (25.8%) and handle percentage (32.2%), but he also represents the biggest liability for sportsbooks, showing just how heavily bettors are backing him.
Skenes’ Historic Dominance
Paul Skenes is having a rookie season for the ages. With a stunning 1.99 ERA, 11.5 K/9, and a 0.96 WHIP, his numbers place him in historic company. Since his debut on May 11th, no pitcher in the majors has posted a lower ERA. In fact, Skenes is just the second player since 1913 to record an ERA under 2.00 through his first 22 career appearances. His consistency has been staggering—allowing only 29 earned runs across 22 starts while becoming the first pitcher in the modern era to notch 150 strikeouts with an ERA below 2.00 in his first 22 games.
His dominance on the mound has positioned him as a serious contender not only for Rookie of the Year but also as one of the top pitchers in the game today. I think he is the best already.
Merrill’s Impressive Season Keeps Him in the Hunt
San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill isn’t going quietly, though. After being a heavy favorite just last week at -800, his odds have shifted to +110, a testament to both Skenes’ surge and Merrill’s continued solid performance. Hitting .292 with 24 home runs and 89 RBI, Merrill has been a key contributor to a Padres team that has caught fire and is heading to the postseason—an advantage that Skenes, pitching for a struggling Pirates squad, doesn’t have.
However, despite Merrill’s impact at the plate, the sheer historical nature of Skenes’ performances has tipped the scales. While Merrill may be part of a playoff-bound team, it’s Skenes who is making history.
Betting Insight: The Value of Betting on Skenes Now
With one more start slated against the Yankees, Skenes has an opportunity to further solidify his status as Rookie of the Year. If he can shut down a lineup featuring stars like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, his odds will likely move even further in his favor. For bettors, the window to capitalize on Skenes' current -150 odds is narrowing.
Jackson Merrill may still have a shot, but Skenes’ trajectory looks nearly unstoppable, making now the prime time to place your bets on him for NL Rookie of the Year. Given his historic rookie campaign and the overwhelming amount of media coverage he commands, the odds may never offer better value than they do right now.
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