Rory McIlroy To Win - 3-Star (+400, BetMGM)
The BetQL model is back at it again this weekend on the PGA Tour, and it sees a lot of value in Rory McIlroy picking up a win at the DP World Tour Championship. It is projecting McIlroy at +225 odds to win, so getting 4/1 at BetMGM provides some decent value.
I continue to feel bad for fans of McIlroy, as even though he plays some excellent golf, he always seems to choke in the biggest moments. This season, he ranked third in total strokes gained and was fourth off the tee, one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour. His game wasn’t as strong on his approach or in his putting, where he ranked 54th and 59th, respectively. Still, he was tremendous this season but couldn’t win the big contests, which has become an issue with him.
However, this isn’t a major, so we really don’t have to worry about his shortcomings there. He’s the favorite here for a reason, and is the best player in this field.
Tommy Fleetwood To Finish Top-5 - 4-Star (+125, MGM)
The model is projecting Fleetwood to have -136 fair odds to finish inside the top-5 at the DP World Tour Championship, so getting plus money here at BetMGM is obviously going to set off the value markers, and this is a 4-star bet right now.
The English golfer had an up and down season this past year, and that is evident in his personal advanced stats. Fleetwood ranked 37th in total strokes gained and 35th off the tee, which was his strongest area. Much like McIlroy, his biggest weakness came in his approach game and in his putting, where he ranked 89th and 87th, respectively. Still, all of those rankings were above the PGA Tour average, and he is a very solid golfer.
In a field that is as reduced as this one is, Fleetwood stands out as one of the better value picks on this slate. We just need him to finish inside the top-5.
Min Woo Lee To Finish Top-10 - 4-Star (+125, MGM)
The model is projecting Lee at -183 fair odds to finish inside the top-10 at the DP World Tour Championship, and since his price at BetMGM is sitting at +125, clearly we are getting some significant value right now on the books. It didn’t quite qualify to be a 5-star play, but it is on the high end of a 4-star.
Lee had a solid 2024 season, ranking around the middle of the pack on the PGA Tour. He was 54th in total strokes gained, and his strongest asset has been his ability off the tee, where he ranked 5th on tour. Just like the last two golfers, the Australian struggled on his approach and in his putting, where he ranked a very poor 134th and 120th, respectively.
In this field, we just need him to finish top-10, which isn’t asking a ton of him. The competition is fairly weak overall, and you can’t deny the value of getting +125 with projected -183 odds.
Adrian Meronk To Finish Top-20 - 5-Star (+105, DK)
The model is projecting Meronk at -330 to finish inside the top-20 at the DP World Tour Championship, which is a massive difference from what we are getting at DraftKings right now. Getting +105 odds on a projected -330 bet has triggered a 5-star play for the model, our first and only one of this contest.
Meronk is not on the PGA Tour, but rather the LIV Golf League, so it is possible that you have never heard of him. As a result, his stats were not recorded or ranked by the PGA this season, as most of his action was not on tour. However, he won this event just two years ago in 2022, so he has plenty of experience in it.
We just need him to finish inside the top-20 at plus money, and the model is loving the value.