Syracuse, the No. 11 seed in the Midwest region, is into the Sweet 16 after upsetting San Diego State and West Virginia.
Buddy Boeheim and the hot shooting Orange will face No. 2 seed Houston after their miraculous comeback against Rutgers in the second round.
Who has the edge with an Elite 8 berth on the line?
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
No. 2 Houston Cougars (-6, 140) vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange, 9:55 PM EST, Saturday
While Syracuse had matchup advantages in their first two contests in the NCAA Tournament, Houston is going to give the Orange fits all over.
For starters, the Cougars are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country.
Ralph Sampson’s team is second in offensive rebounding rate, which is going up against a Cuse defense that is 340th in national defensive rebounding percentage.
The ability to generate second chances is going to be huge against the patented Syracuse 2-3 zone. We have seen the Orange outshoot two teams already this tournament, but also get crushed on the glass, losing the offensive rebounding margin by double digits in both games. Houston is comfortable playing a perimeter oriented game, ranking inside the top 60 in three-point rate.
I see the Cougars dominating in the rebounding department, but making the Orange pay more from the outside and beating them at their own game.
Cuse has become incredibly reliant on the long ball in the tournament, averaging a 57% three-point rate through two tournament games.
The Cougs will take and make a ton of three pointers, but they also are great at defending them, allowing opponents to shoot below 30% from deep.
The clear advantage on the glass and ability to shoot with Syracuse, has me siding with the No. 2 seed in this matchup.
The spread may be a bit of an overreaction after a strong opening weekend for the Orange, but I see too many edges for Houston not to break this one open and win by double digits.
I played a Houston/ Baylor moneyline parlay, but I do see the Cougars covering this spread if I were to take a side in ATS pools.
Lean: Houston -6
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