There are hundreds, hell maybe thousands of prop bets to choose from nowadays. The wagers range from the coin toss to the last play of the game being a kneel down. I won’t go too crazy, but here are a handful of Chiefs related props that I’m eyeing on Super Bowl Sunday.
I can not stress enough how fluid the market is across the board and to shop for the best line. Books are taking money on different sides and shift the odds accordingly, so you could find better lines at different places.
Odds current as of Thursday morning
Sammy Watkins over 36.5 receiving yards (-112) - DraftKings Sportsbook
Watkins has not been confirmed to be active for the Super Bowl, but all signs do point to the Chiefs wide receiver to be on the field.
Watkins has not played since Week 16 due to a calf injury, but I think this spot sets up nicely for him. In six of 10 games this season, Watkins has gone over this total. When healthy, this number is simply too low for the Chiefs No. 2 target.
Furthermore, there is going to be an increased emphasis on the passing game in the Super Bowl. If you’ve been reading my content the past two weeks, you know that I believe the Chiefs are going to be throwing at all times on Sunday.
Last postseason, Watkins averaged more than five catches for 96 yards. He has chemistry with Mahomes and I expect him to be all systems go. I’d play this over to 39.5.
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Patrick Mahomes over 21.5 rushing yards (-115) - PointsBet
Last year, Mahomes infamously ran backwards 15 yards on the final drive to burn the clock and secure a Super Bowl victory.
That prop closed at around 36.5 yards. Now, we get a 15 yard buffer? Yes, Mahomes is battling turf toe, but in a game where I expect a ton of pressure from the Bucs defensive line, I see Mahomes taking off quite a bit.
Mahomes had four carries for 28 yards in the first meeting between both teams and I don’t see his toe being an issue on Sunday. I’d play this up to 25.5 rushing yards.
Chiefs team rushing yards under 90.5 (-125) - FanDuel
This may be a bit counterintuitive based on the last prop I gave but stick with me here.
Kansas City ran for 87 yards in the first meeting which featured a positive game script throughout. I don’t foresee KC building a 17-point lead in this one and less opportunity to run.
Tampa Bay has the No. 1 rush defense in the league and run stopping defensive lineman Vita Vea should be closer to full strength after playing in the NFC championship game.
For some loose change, I would bet on Mahomes to lead KC in rushing yards if you can find it. I have not seen that prop just yet, but that surely will have a nice payout.
I foresee very little impact on the ground from Chiefs running backs, but Mahomes should be able to pick up a handful of rushing yards on drop backs.
Patrick Mahomes over 28.5 completions, over 40.5 pass attempts (+100, -134) - DraftKings Sportsbook
I’ve been on this one since the prop market opened, but I still see some value. Once again, game script.
Win or lose, Mahomes is going to be throwing at will in this game and I see him pushing 50 pass attempts in this one.
Tampa Bay has been great at limiting the explosive pass -- top five in the league in explosive play defense, per SharpFootball Stats -- and I see a ton of underneath routes for No. 15. With shorter throws comes more completions and more attempts.
There is some juice coming in on the pass attempts, and I’d be willing to go up to 42.5 at + money if you find those in the market.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary