We are just under two weeks from the start of Super Bowl LIX, which will pit the Philadelphia Eagles against the Kansas City Chiefs for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles will be looking for their first Super Bowl since the 2017 season, when Nick Foles took down Tom Brady and the Patriots in Super Bowl LII. The Chiefs have won the previous two Super Bowls and are going for the first three-peat in NFL history. They defeated this same Eagles team in 2022 in Super Bowl LVII, and then took down the San Francisco 49ers last season in Super Bowl LVIII. QB Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl MVP in both games.
Over at BetMGM, our friend Drew O’Dell was kind enough to share some of the early betting data for who will win Super Bowl MVP this go around. He shared some of the biggest line moves, as well as which players are generating the most interest in terms of tickets and money. He also shared the book’s biggest liabilities, the guys that BetMGM would love to see not win it.
Line Movement (Opening to Current)
Patrick Mahomes +400 to +105
Saquon Barkley +2500 to +240
Jalen Hurts +1400 to +375
Mahomes has always been the favorite, which makes sense since the Chiefs have been to the Super Bowl nearly every season he has been in the NFL. The Eagles were much less certain to get there, so we have had some large odds movement with their guys. Saquon Barkley has had the biggest movement, going from 25/1 to just +240. He’s been unreal to this point, carrying the Philly offense on his back, and is the favorite to win it for the Eagles. QB Jalen Hurts hasn’t been lighting it up, but he has done his job and hasn’t turned the ball over. Quarterbacks are always most likely to win the award, so that is why he is also way up there.
Highest Ticket %
Saquon Barkley 11.4%
Josh Allen 9.3%
Jayden Daniels 7.3%
Mind you, this takes into account the total amount of tickets on a player regardless of whether they made it to the Super Bowl. So, the books have already won on Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels tickets since they both won’t be competing. Barkley is by far their largest ticket count left to win Super Bowl MVP, making him the public favorite.
Highest Handle %
Saquon Barkley 16.9%
Josh Allen 16.4%
Patrick Mahomes 7.6%
This is where all the money is to win Super Bowl MVP, and as you can see, the book has already popped some champagne on Allen not making it. However, Barkley and Mahomes still present a very large amount of money that the book would have to give out if either of them were to win the award.
Biggest Liability
Saquon Barkley
Aidan Hutchinson
Travis Kelce
Finally, these are the guys that the sportsbook would really prefer not to win the award, as they would lose the most money on them if they did. Obviously, Aiden Hutchinson was a big win for them after the Lions were eliminated. Barkley and Kelce remain as the two biggest issues for the sportsbook. You know what that means? Likely another Mahomes Super Bowl MVP, or Hurts could surprise and win it for Philly.
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