Super Bowl LIX is just around the corner ladies and gentlemen, and with it will come a lot of money being wagered on the game. People will be betting on all kinds of markets, as the Super Bowl offers more of them than any other NFL game, including novelty props like betting on Gatorade color. However, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Some of the biggest and most popular bets will be on the superstars in the game, including Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley.
Our friend John Ewing of BetMGM was kind enough to share some of the betting data for Barkley in the early going. Everything from the standard rushing yards to longest receptions, I’ll share where the money and tickets are going, as well as any line movement.
Rushing Yards
Open: 114.5
Current: 113.5
Ticket%: 78% Over
Money%: 79% Over
Interestingly, despite a majority of tickets and money backing Barkley to go over his rushing yards prop, the line has moved down from 114.5 to 113.5. Also of note, Kansas City ranked 8th in the NFL in rushing defense, and they know that Barkley is the key to Philadelphia winning the game.
Rushing Attempts
Open: 22.5
Current: 21.5
Ticket%: 88% Over
Money%: 99% Over
Much the same can be said about this prop, where an overwhelming amount of money and tickets are on the over, and yet his attempts have gone down from 22.5 to 21.5. It seems the sharps are on his under, and if you read our Patrick Mahomes props article, you’ll know they are also on his under passing. This means that they think there is more rushing for Kansas City and more passing for Philadelphia.
Longest Rush
Open: 22.5
Current: 23.5
Ticket%: 99% Over
Money%: 99% Over
In this case, the line did not move the opposite way when 99% of money came in on the over, and it actually did go up. This tells me the sharps probably stayed away from this line, as they know Barkley is able to hit a home run at any time while still going under his rushing prop.
Receiving Yards
Open: 10.5
Current: 11.5
Ticket%: 98% Over
Money%: 99% Over
Barkley is a beast on the ground, but he isn’t that big of a threat in the receiving game. Still, with the sharps seemingly thinking Philly will have to pass a bit more, this one could be valuable. Everyone and their brother is betting it as well with 99% of the money on the over.
Receptions
Open: 1.5
Current: 1.5
Ticket%: 99% Over
Money%: 99% Over
Stop me if you have heard this before, but 99% of the money is on Barkley to go over 1.5 receptions in the game. It shouldn’t be shocking to anyone that the over is going to be bet on pretty much every prop for these superstar players, but Barkley in particular has a lot of 99% splits to his overs. I’d be very careful with him.
Longest Reception
Open: 8.5
Current: 8.5
Ticket%: 99% Over
Money%: 99% Over
Yawn, the story remains the same. I can tell you with absolute certainty that BetMGM is going to want Barkley to have a quiet game in virtually every aspect.
Rushing + Receiving Yards
Open: 130.5
Current: 130.5
Ticket%: 88% Over
Money%: 98% Over
Thus concludes every Saquon Barkley prop, and unsurprisingly, every single one of them has more money and tickets on the over. Some have had reverse line movement, which are the ones that I would be paying most attention to here. Take his under rushing yards and attempts, as if the Chiefs get out to a lead, Philly is going to need to pass.
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