It’s hard to believe, but we are already through four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, and we are starting to get a real feeling for what the teams and players will be this year. It’s still quite early in the year, and many things can change very quickly, but we at least can take a look at the latest odds and see who is in line to win the biggest awards at the end of the season. The most prominent individual award, the NFL MVP, is always an extremely interesting battle every season. It is rare that we ever have a clear cut frontrunner until the last two weeks of the year, and this year is no different.
Right now over at BetMGM, one quick glance at the MVP oddsboard would certainly not leave you very shocked. Kansas City Chiefs superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the current favorite to take home the hardware once again at +240, and his odds increased from +325 after this past weekend when they defeated the Los Angeles Chargers. He overtook Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, who had a rather average performance in his team's blowout 35-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Allen moved from +200 to +260 after the loss, getting passed up by Mahomes.
Kansas City is 4-0 this season, which has a lot to do with how high Mahomes is on this list. He himself really hasn’t been that spectacular so far this season, throwing for 904 yards with six touchdowns, but five interceptions in four games. Of course, he is dealing with an offense that has lost nearly all of its talent due to injury, and veteran tight end Travis Kelce looks like he is 100 years old out there.
Allen statistically has been the much better signal-caller in 2024, passing for 814 yards with seven touchdowns, but most importantly having zero interceptions. His QBR is ranked 1st in the league at 82.3, compared to Mahomes’ 52.9 rating, which ranks 17th. However, the Bills are 3-1 after that embarrassing loss to the Ravens, which is why Allen’s odds have dropped.
According to BetMGM, Mahomes is garnering 9.4 percent of MVP tickets and 11.8 percent of the total handle for the award. Allen is getting 7.1 percent of the tickets and 9.7 percent of the handle. So, they are very close in terms of both ticket count and handle, but Mahomes is slightly more of a liability for the sportsbook. However, contrary to popular belief, the books generally like it when the favorite wins the award.
The reason for this is, while a higher number of tickets and handle are on this bet, the odds only range from +240 to the preseason +500 marks. When you compare that to some players getting 15/1 or longer odds, even if there is less total money and tickets on them, the liability is often higher due to the huge plus money compared to Mahomes or Allen. For instance, Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud is getting 9.4 percent of the tickets as well, but is sitting at 11/1 odds, so the book would much rather Mahomes win than him.
It will be interesting to see where this market goes as the season rolls along. Mahomes is probably always going to be up there, despite his average performance so far this season. Allen has statistically been the best QB so far this season, but that doesn’t guarantee him anything.
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