The NFL season may be over, but the odds never stop in this sport, and there are still so many markets for you to bet on. Perhaps the most popular bet post Super Bowl is who will be the 1st overall pick in the upcoming draft, which is actually a viable market this year. Last year, QB Caleb Williams was well over -1000 to be the first overall pick, so there was no real mystery as to who the Chicago Bears would select.
This year, we have a much different story in this market that actually makes it interesting. Over at BetMGM, our friend John Ewing sent us over their latest betting splits and data right now on who will get the call before anyone else. This data can be very telling, as it shows us a glimpse of where the tickets and cash are headed, and where the liability is right now for the sportsbook.
We have had some pretty important line movement since last week, with Miami QB Cam Ward and Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter making some moves.
Line Movement (Last Week to Current)
Cam Ward: -145 to -155
Abdul Carter: +180 to +150
Right now, these two have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. However, the public is taking shots with some other big names, as you can see from the latest ticket% this week.
Highest Ticket%
Travis Hunter: 29.4%
Shedeur Sanders: 18.1%
Cam Ward: 17.3%
As you can see, Colorado do-it-all man Travis Hunter is a very popular pick to be selected No. 1 overall, but his odds have plummeted lately, down to 7/1 at MGM as I write this. His QB Shedeur Sanders is a close second, with even more tickets than the current favorite Ward, but he also has dropped off on the odds board. However, what really matters is where the money is going.
Highest Handle%
Cam Ward: 43.9%
Travis Hunter: 22.1%
Shedeur Sanders: 17.6%
It is no wonder why Ward has moved into the favorite spot, considering a whopping 43.9% of total cash in this market is on him to be selected first, and on just 17.3% of tickets to boot. There are many large bets on him, clearly. Even so, he is not the biggest liability for the sportsbook.
Biggest Liability
Travis Hunter
Cam Ward
Shedeur Sanders
The books want to avoid Hunter being the first overall pick, and they are looking pretty good right now in that seat. If you noticed, Carter is not listed in either of the ticket or handle stats, and he isn’t a liability for the book. Therefore, I can guarantee you that out of the realistic candidates to be picked first, Carter would be the best outcome for the book right now.
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