When I initially came up with the idea of expanding Jacob deGrom's unbelievable stat line from the 2021 season into a full year's worth of production, I figured I'd be doing it just for fun. Then, I realized that the last thing this might be for a Mets fan is "fun," seeing as his health — along with several other factors — contributed to the team's surprising lack of a playoff berth this year. So for some people, I'm doing this for "fun." And as for the Mets fans, I'm doing it just for a somewhat tough, bittersweet acknowledgment of what could have been.
Anyway, now that we know he's not returning this year, let's take a look at the stats the deGrom posted in his small-ish sample size and expand them out over the course of a starting pitcher's typical workload in games played.
What he accomplished was nothing short of exceptional. A 1.08 ERA over 92 innings pitched is unprecedented in league history, and it ranks among the best of all time. I applied filters to the list that require at least 90 innings pitched and at least 80 percent of outings coming as a starter, so that he'd qualify, and here's what we got as a result (via Stathead):
With the exception of Bob Gibson, these types of stats were only seen in the era of professional baseball that was played before deGrom, or his parents, or his grandparents, were even alive. And if you'll look at the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and strikeout percentages, you'll see that he leads the entire pack.
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His strikeouts on the year — 146 in 92 innings — made for 14.3 K/9 and a 13.3 K/BB ratios. Here's the full list of pitchers, again with a minimum of 90 innings pitched, who have turned in double-digit ratios in each of those statistics. Spoiler alert: it's not a big list.
So that's what he did without the full season's worth of work... now, let's push his 15 starts up to 32 — a number he tallied in both of his Cy Young seasons in 2018 and 2019 — and look at what we're working with. Of course, it's unreasonable to think he would have continued on the same exact trajectory he was on — or is it? Anyway, here's his hypothetical campaign had injuries not been responsible for cutting it short:
Jacob deGrom, 2021 (expanded)
15 wins, 4 losses, 196.1 innings pitched, 311 strikeouts, 23 walks, 1.08 ERA
The strikeout and walk numbers would be career bests, while the wins would tie his career high from 2017. And you could also add a third Cy Young Award to his count without the slightest hesitation, seeing as these numbers are the definition of dominance from the mound.
If there's a silver lining to this all, it's that manager Luis Rojas called deGrom "fine to pitch" but just didn't want to risk it for no reason with the Mets already eliminated from contention. And when he returns — hopefully for a full year — he should pick up right where he left off.
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