Sunday’s NBA slate presents several strong player prop opportunities, with value on Nikola Jokic’s triple-double streak, Josh Giddey’s expanded offensive role, and Isaiah Hartenstein’s rebounding dominance in a dream matchup. Let’s dive into the best bets for March 2 and why these plays are worth backing.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic Triple-Double vs. Celtics (-120, BetMGM)
I’m at the point where I’m betting this every game. Joker is entering this game one triple-double shy of his career-high of 29 and is on quite the hot streak, registering one in three of his last four contests and in 16 of his last 27 starts. Out of those 11 failed attempts in that 27-game span, seven missed by exactly one rebound or assist, which is absolutely insane consistency. Averaging 29.1 points, 12.7 rebounds (on 17.0 chances) and 10.5 assists (on 17.0 potential assists) on the season, Joker has put up 22.8 points, 14.0 rebounds (on 20.5 chances) and 12.6 assists (on 18.4 potential assists) since the All-Star Game. The matchup against the Celtics isn’t going to be an issue, either. In his last three games against Boston, Jokic has put up these stat lines: 32 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists, 34 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists and 30 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists. I’m going to keep betting this until it gets juiced up to the -150 range and beyond like it did in past seasons.
Bulls PG Josh Giddey Over 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Pacers (-110, BetMGM)
Well, it seems like Josh Giddey can handle getting extra usage. Over his last five games, Giddey has averaged 23.2 points (54.1% shooting on 14.8 shot attempts), 11.2 rebounds (17.0 chances) and 8.8 assists (16.2 potential assists) in 35.6 minutes. With Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu out and Lonzo Ball, Coby White and Kevin Huerter all questionable, he should continue to be the focal point of Chicago’s offense against Indiana. In 1,411 minutes without Vucevic, Dosunmu, Williams and Zach LaVine (who isn’t on the team anymore), Giddey has seen a 0.58% usage rate bump, 1.88% rebounding rate bump and massive 7.77% assist rate bump and the way in which he plays should benefit him in this matchup. In that five-game set, he’s averaged 17.0 drives per game (4th in NBA during that span) and has generated 2.6 assists on those drives, most in the Association. Indiana has allowed the 9th-most points in the paint in that handful of games and the Bulls offense relies on driving to create opportunities. In fact, Chicago drives at the 5th-highest rate, averages 23.6 passes out of drives per game (2nd-most in NBA) and their 45.2% pass rate on drives leads the NBA. The Pacers also allow 9.6 points per game to rollers on pick-and-rolls and the Bulls average the 5th-most passes to rollers in the league. I expect another huge game from Mr. Giddey.
Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein Over 11.5 Rebounds vs. Spurs (-105, BetMGM)
Chet Holmgren is out for the Thunder, which puts Hartenstein in a great spot to dominate on the glass. In 939 minutes with Holmgren off the floor, Hartenstein leads his team with a 21.85% rebounding rate and has been a force on the boards all year long, averaging 11.4 rebounds (8th in NBA) on 20.1 rebounding chances (6th in NBA). Not only that, but he’s racked up 3.1 offensive rebounds (15th) on 8.3 offensive rebounding chances (3rd). That matters because in the six games since Victor Wembanyama’s been out, the Spurs have been brutalized on the boards, allowing a 36.2% opponent offensive rebounding rate (highest in NBA) and a NBA-worst 44.9% team rebounding percentage en route to allowing an NBA-high 52.7 total rebounds per contest to their opponents. Hartenstein should thrive in this regard tonight.
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