The Boston Celtics will celebrate their 18th championship banner on Opening Night as they face off against the revamped New York Knicks. While the full-game spread for Boston sits at -5.5, the real value may lie in their first-half performance. Last season, the Celtics were the NBA’s best team against first-half spreads, and this matchup looks ripe for another hot start. Here’s why taking Boston -2.5 in the first half is the expert pick for their season opener.
NBA Best Bet: Celtics -3.5 1H vs. Knicks (-110, FanDuel)
It’s going to be an emotional night in Boston, as the elusive 18th championship banner will be raised to the TD Garden rafters before this game against the new-look Knicks. Rather than grabbing the Celtics to cover -5.5 for the full game, I’m going to be on them to crush the first half just like they did last season. In fact, they were the best team in the NBA vs. 1H spreads last season: 66-34 (66% win rate, +26.05 units, 21.97% ROI). Meanwhile, although their makeup is now different, the Knicks had the 3rd-worst 1H ATS record last year: 41-53 (43.62% win rate -20.55 units, -18.39% ROI). Just saying.
We’re going to see a ton of cohesion from the Celtics. Joe Mazzulla is going to start Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Al Horford while Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman will come off the bench. Tom Thibodeau will start Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart while Miles McBride is the only guy off the bench guaranteed to play substantial minutes. Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa are out with injuries and Landry Shamet was waived, thus leaving major question marks as far as depth is concerned. I assume that Jericho Sims and Ariel Hukporti could get minutes and maybe even rookies Tyler Kolek and Pacome Dadiet could see minutes. Nonetheless, I expect Boston’s second unit to feast against New York’s, which is why I love this first half line in particular. Thibs won’t play his starters 45 minutes each in the season opener.
Succeeding against this Celtics team is going to take a ton of efficiency on both ends of the floor and since KAT just joined his new teammates, I think it’ll be a learning process for all involved as the Knicks moved on from Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, two huge parts of their rotation. New York has a ton of upside, but I expect a hot start from the C’s in front of their home fans.
Timberwolves -1 at Lakers (-110, FanDuel)
In the LeBron James Era, the Lakers have gone 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in season-openers and it’s pretty clear to me that Minnesota is the much better team heading into the new season. Starting Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert, Minnesota will bring Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and perhaps rookies Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr., which gives them quality depth.
The Lakers will start LeBron James, Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura and will likely bring Gabe Vincent, Max Christie, Dalton Knecht, Cam Reddish and Jaxson Hayes off the pine. Adding Randle and DiVincenzo to the mix and saying goodbye to Karl-Anthony Towns will likely create a bit of a chemistry challenge for the T-Wolves, but this is Edwards’ franchise and I fully expect Minnesota to make a huge statement to the rest of the NBA in primetime.
Related
