Josh Hermsmeyer of Fivethirtyeight.com recently did a deep dive into how players and teams are affected by pass interference, charting all 221 DPI flags called during the 2021 season. According to data compiled by Hermsmeyer, the Raiders have benefited most with 20.4 EPA (expected points added) on 10 defensive pass interferences. The Colts aren’t far behind in that metric (third at 16.5 EPA), with quarterback Carson Wentz registering a 26.2 aDOT (average depth of target) on 10 DPI calls this season.
While goading defenders into pass interference could be considered a skill, Hermsmeyer thinks that’s probably giving Wentz too much credit. In fact, Hermsmeyer would argue Wentz was bailed out on half those calls, underthrowing his receiver fives times. That’s more than any other quarterback with Derek Carr the next closest with three underthrown balls.
“Wentz’s pass attempts don’t appear to be the manifestation of skill,” Hermsmeyer writes of Wentz’s inexplicable penchant for drawing DPI calls. “They look like bad throws.” In that sense, Wentz has been among the most fortunate quarterbacks in football. In stark contrast, the Chiefs, led by perennial MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes, haven’t gotten much love from officials this year with just one DPI called in their favor. The Giants lead the league with 13 such calls, though it’s only produced 12.7 EPA (seventh-most), a byproduct of New York’s lowly 9.0 aDOT on plays resulting in pass interference.
The impact of defensive pass interference penalties cannot be overstated. Hermsmeyer’s research determined that teams guilty of DPI, a spot foul in the NFL (as opposed to how it’s officiated in college, where the maximum punishment is 15 yards), decrease their win probability by a full four percent.
The NFL’s lack of consistency on calling pass interference has long been a divisive subject in league circles. In response to a controversial non-call in the 2018 NFC Championship Game (Rams defensive back Nickell Robey-Coleman appeared to interfere with Saints receiver Tommylee Lewis), the NFL briefly made defensive pass interference plays reviewable, though that change would only last a year.
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