Thursday’s NHL slate presents a mix of intriguing matchups and betting angles. We’re highlighting a defensive showdown between the Winnipeg Jets and Tampa Bay Lightning and a goal-scoring opportunity for Buffalo’s Dylan Cozens. Here’s why these bets provide solid value tonight.
Jets at Lightning Under 6.5 (-134, FanDuel)
The Winnipeg Jets just can’t seem to stop winning hockey games, as they are now an unbelievable 15-1 after their first 16 games of the season. Perhaps even more impressive, they are 7-0 on the road after defeating the New York Rangers 6-3 in their last game. There hasn’t been one aspect of their game to this point that you can look at and say they have a real issue.
The offense is humming right along, scoring 4.56 goals per game and getting 31.4 shots on net, while they also are allowing just 2.13 goals per game on defense. They are ranked No. 1 on offense and defense to start the season, and while that is unlikely to be sustainable, they are surely one of the hottest hockey teams in the world right now.
Netminder Connor Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy last season for best goaltender, and he looks to win it again in 2024, and is off to a great start with his 1.92 GA/G and .934 SV%.
However, this spot is what we call the perfect example of a trap game. Tampa Bay has lost four straight contests coming into this one, but they do own a 4-1-1 record at home, which is where they are here. They rank 8th in goals scored per game at 3.50, but they have struggled a bit on defense where they rank 19th allowing 3.14 goals themselves. This is a team that has been competitive in nearly all of their games, and Winnipeg has to be really careful here.
I think with how good Hellebuyck is, and with the Lightning being at home where Andrei Vasilevskiy has thrived, I think this is going to be a lower-scoring affair. The fact that Tampa Bay is a small -115 favorite here, despite having lost four games in a row and facing a 15-1 team, speaks volumes as well.
Sabres C Dylan Cozens Anytime Goalscorer vs. Blues (+250, FanDuel)
Tage Thompson has been ruled out for the Buffalo Sabres tonight, and he has been their best offensive weapon this season. He leads the team in just about every category, and without him in the lineup, someone else is going to need to step up and replace that production. I think Cozens has a chance to be that guy tonight against a terrible St. Louis Blues defense that is allowing 30.3 shots per game to this point.
Cozens, despite having just three goals on the season, is actually second on the team in shots on goal with 46 of them. That is just slightly behind Thompson, who has 51, and I love how aggressive he has been on offense so far. Now with Thompson sitting with an injury, Cozens will need to step up even more and produce. I love his over 2.5 shots on goal as well, and the value here on him to score a goal is pretty good in my opinion.
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