These teams faced each other six times this season, with New York winning four of those matchups, including two out of three in their last series in late August. The Yankees have also won four of the last six prior playoff series against Cleveland and three straight, including the 2022 ALDS. To say the Yankees have gotten the best of Cleveland over the many years is a pretty easy thing to deduce.
Tonight, New York will send Rodon to the mound to try and continue that domination. In 175.0 innings of work this year, he generated a 4.14 xERA and 4.09 xFIP, which would rate him as pretty much an average pitcher. However, he did pitch much better in the second half than he did the first, shifting his 4.36 xFIP at the All-Star break down to that 4.09 figure. The Guardians lineup has very little experience against him outside of veteran Jose Ramirez.
Still, Rodon couldn’t get to the fifth inning in his last playoff start against the Royals, allowing seven hits and four runs in just 3 ⅔ innings. He did rack up seven strikeouts in that limited time, however. The bad news is that Cleveland’s offense was much better against lefties in the regular season, posting a 114 wRC+ as a lineup compared to just 95 vs. RHPs. Roden is not Tarik Skubal, who the Guardians had to face in two of their last four games.
The Guardians struck out at one of the lowest rates in baseball against lefties, at just 18.6%, in the second half. Rodon’s strikeout number is set at 5.5, and while he did clear this against Kansas City, Cleveland should be harder to send packing. I’d bet his under at that number. I’d also look at his under innings pitched prop, which you can find either juiced at 15.5 or plus money at 14.5. Either way, Rodon has never been an efficient pitcher in terms of pitch count, and Cleveland doesn’t strike out, which will make him work for his outs.
In addition, the Yankees bullpen is fully rested after three days off, and manager Aaron Boone can be aggressive with them if Rodon struggles again.
On the other side, Cobb will get the start for the Guardians. I’d play the opposite for him, taking his overs in terms of innings and strikeouts. Cleveland’s bullpen worked almost the entire game of their clinching victory over Detroit, including Tim Herrin and Cade Smith, who pitched in three straight games to end that series. Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase also pitched in Games 4 and 5. Their best relievers could use a rest, so I think the Guardians could try to keep Cobb out there longer.
In only 16.0 innings of work since coming off of an injury this season, Cobb generated a 4.87 xERA and 3.70 xFIP. That isn’t a huge sample size, and he only managed three innings in his last playoff start. The Yankees had the best offense in baseball against right-handers, with a 120 wRC+ as a lineup, and it is quite the challenge for any righty to navigate them effectively.
The Guardians will have the bullpen advantage overall, ranking 2nd in xFIP compared to New York’s 11th. Cleveland also has a decent advantage defensively, ranking 2nd in DRS and 9th in OAA, compared to the Yankees’ ranking 10th in both categories. On the bases, the Guardians were around league average in BsR, while New York was one of the worst baserunning teams in the league, ranking 30th.
In terms of bets, I think Cleveland at anything +130 or better is some good value. I also find value in the under at 7.5, as I think both starters can be effective enough here before we get to an elite Cleveland bullpen and good New York one.
Best Bets: Guardians ML (+146), Under 7.5 (-115), Rodon Under 5.5 Ks (-150), Rodon Under 15.5 or 14.5 outs (-160, +120), Cobb Over 2.5 Ks (-165), Cobb Over 11.5 Outs (-117)
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
