The NFC West rivalry heats up on Thursday Night Football as the San Francisco 49ers (2-3) take on the Seattle Seahawks (3-2). The 49ers are 3.5-point road favorites with an over/under set at 47.5 points at BetMGM. Both teams are fighting to stay competitive in the division, making this a crucial game for playoff positioning. The matchup also presents several enticing player prop bets, particularly for Seahawks QB Geno Smith, 49ers RB Jordan Mason, and 49ers TE George Kittle. Let’s dive into the best bets for this pivotal Week 6 contest, along with the best numbers and prices from across the industry.
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Seahawks QB Geno Smith Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Within new OC Ryan Grubb’s system, Smith is thriving as a passer and has easily gone over this mark in four straight games, registering 327, 289, 395 and 284 yards on 44, 34, 56 and 40 attempts. Not only that, but he leads the entire NFL in passing yards! While San Francisco’s defense has been solid against the pass, their yardage allowed average was skewed down by Aaron Rodgers’ 167-yard outing against them in Week 1 and Jacoby Brissett’s 168-yard dud against them in Week 4. With D.K. Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett as his weapons at WR and both Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet out of the backfield, Smith is in a great weekly position to produce. I love this number for him and don’t care about the perceived tough matchup.
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 4.5 Receptions (-137, BetRivers) & Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Picking between DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is very difficult every week and I typically don’t take a stand on more than one. This week, it’s very clear to me that JSN should be that guy for a pretty simple reason: he lives in the slot. He has racked up 221 receiving yards from the slot this season (4th-most in the NFL) and the Niners have allowed 13.8 yards per attempt to slot wideouts this year (most in the NFL). As a whole, San Francisco has allowed the 5th-most receptions and 6th-most receiving yards to slot wideouts, so I can see Smith finding him in the middle of the field with high efficiency, especially due to the fact that the Niners have been remarkably inefficient defensively when blitzing, which you can read more about below.
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49ers RB Jordan Mason Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Mason has simply been awesome filling in for the injured Christian McCaffrey and I expect the Niners to lean on the run game in this matchup against the Seahawks. San Francisco needs to win this game to get back to .500 and that should mean heavy volume and usage for Mason, who has racked up 147, 100, 77, 123 and 89 rushing yards on 5.1 average yards per carry this season. Seattle has allowed opposing running backs to record an average of 110.6 rushing yards per game, 9th-most in the NFL, and Mason has seen the lion’s share of snaps and opportunities at the running back position. That won’t change, even with a short week of preparation and recovery.
49ers TE George Kittle Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
There are a lot of mouths to feed on both of these offenses which makes player prop betting difficult, but I do really like Kittle’s matchup and outlook. Not only has he played 94% and then 91% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks since returning from injury, but he just caught eight passes on 12 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against the Cardinals. He’s scored a touchdown in three consecutive starts and clearly has Brock Purdy’s attention. He’s put up 40, 76, 45 and 64 receiving yards and gets a matchup against a Seahawks defense that’s allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (57.2).
BetMGM Betting Data: 49ers-Seahawks Player Props
For the upcoming 49ers-Seahawks matchup, player prop betting has seen significant activity, with bettors overwhelmingly favoring the over on key rushing totals. A whopping 99% of tickets are on Kenneth Walker to exceed 60.5 rushing yards (-135), reflecting strong confidence in the Seahawks' run game. Likewise, 99% of bets back Jordan Mason to surpass 82.5 rushing yards (-125), with additional interest in Mason’s longest rush prop of over 17.5 yards (-115). Geno Smith's over on 13.5 rushing yards (-125) and Walker’s over on 20.5 receiving yards (-120) have also garnered notable attention.
When it comes to anytime touchdown scorer props, bettors are placing their faith in several playmakers. Kenneth Walker leads the way at -120, followed by Deebo Samuel at +120, and Brandon Aiyuk at +150. DK Metcalf (+140) and George Kittle (+175) round out the most popular touchdown bets for this high-stakes divisional clash.
As for first touchdown scorer bets, Jordan Mason (+400) and Kenneth Walker (+500) are the frontrunners. However, there’s also considerable interest in George Kittle (+1000), DK Metcalf (+1000), and Deebo Samuel (+850), suggesting a range of early scoring possibilities.
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