Seahawks +9.5 — Under 53.5 (-130, BetMGM)
This is probably the most obvious teaser for this game, but I think it is also a winning one on Thursday night. The San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks, and both teams are coming off of some terrible losses. The 49ers are a -3.5 favorite in the game, and the total is pretty high at 47.5 right now based off of what we have seen from these teams.
I will probably be on the Seahawks in this game at the +3.5, so why not tease that side up to get us a +9.5 and through the key number of 7? Seattle got embarrassed at home by the New York Giants, losing outright as a -7 favorite. They have now lost two straight games after starting the season 3-0, and the public never really believed in them to begin with.
I fully expect a majority of public bettors to be solidly on the 49ers, as until further notice, they are a very public team after the amount of success they have had in recent years. The books are probably going to need the Seahawks to cover and win outright, as I’m sure 49ers moneyline will be a popular parlay piece.
As for the under, the book is always going to need the under. Public bettors always bet the over blindly, and in a primetime island game, the under is always going to be a play for me in some way. It also hits at a very high rate, and here, we are giving ourselves a nice cushion and pushing this over 53 points.
The total is lined as high as it is because Seattle’s defense has gotten shredded for two straight weeks, and San Francisco has also had a lot of defensive issues this year. This is not the same 49ers defense that people are used to seeing, and they have gotten gashed several times already this season.
Still, I think you could see a surprisingly low-scoring affair in this game. Thursday Night Football is notorious for sloppy football games because of the short rest, and honestly, I wish the NFL would be rid of it. However, it makes a lot of money, so that won’t be happening.
This comes down to where the betting splits will be for this game. If a majority of the bets and money is on the 49ers and the over, as I predict it will be, the Seahawks and the under are going to be the easy play here. Make sure to keep an eye out on those throughout the week to keep track of where the money is headed.
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